PTBA new railway project, The Tanjung Enim–Keramasan railway (20 Mtpa, 158 km), targeted for operation in 2Q26, alongside port capacity upgrades, is expected to materially improve logistics efficiency and reduce transportation costs over the medium to long term.

Global coal demand in 2026 is expected to remain flat, with growth in China and India offsetting declines elsewhere, while production is projected to contract amid oversupply and policy tightening; in Indonesia, output remains high but is set to be reduced in 2026 to support prices and rebalance domestic and export supply.

In 9M25, PTBA’s revenue grew 2% YoY on higher sales volumes despite lower ASPs, while net profit declined due to weaker coal prices and higher fuel costs. Production and transportation volumes remained strong, supported by non-KAI logistics optimization.

Revenue is projected to remain relatively flat in FY25F–FY26F before rebounding in FY27F, reflecting resilient fundamentals amid a normalized coal price environment.

We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation on PTBA with a target price of 2,800 per share using DCF valuation. underpinned by solid fundamentals and expected logistics-driven cost efficiencies.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

January 15th, 2026

Production Price Inflation (PPI) di AS naik 0.2% MoM di November 2025, dari 0.1% MoM di Oktober 2025 dan sesuai ekspektasi pasar, didorong kenaikan harga barang 0.9% MoM akibat harga energi yang naik signifikan 4.6% MoM. Secara tahunan, Headline PPI mencapai 3.0% YoY dari 2.8% YoY di Oktober 2025 dan melebihi ekspektasi pasar 2.7% YoY.

Menteri Keuangan RI, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, berencana menambah lapisan atau layer tarif Cukai Hasil Tembakau (CHT) seiring maraknya peredaran produk rokok ilegal di dalam negeri. Rencana tersebut diharapkan dapat menambah dan memaksimalkan penerimaan cukai negara ke depan. Sepanjang 2025 lalu, Kementerian Keuangan lewat Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai telah berhasil mengamankan sebanyak 1.4 miliar batang rokok ilegal.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Rabu (14/1).

Koreksi didorong oleh pelemahan pada saham sektor perbankan dan teknologi.

Pertemuan antara AS dan Denmark serta Greenland tidak mencapai kesepakatan (14/1).

Harga minyak mentah melemah setelah Trump memberi sinyal mungkin tidak akan menyerang Iran.

Pemerintah akan menghidupkan kembali proyek gasifikasi batu bara menjadi dimethyl ether (DME) tahun ini.

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps di level 4.144%.

Harga emas di pasar spot menguat 1.1% ke level US$4,635/troy oz.

Diperkirakan IHSG masih berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan menguji, namun perlu diwaspadai potensi profit taking menjelang libur long weekend.

Top picks (15/1): BRIS, BMRI, BBTN, PSAB dan SSIA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

U.S. headline inflation rose by 0.3% MoM in December 2025, unchanged from September 2025 and in line with market expectations. The increase was driven by higher shelter costs, which rose by 0.4%, while the food price index increased by 0.7% and energy prices advanced by 0.3%. Additional upward pressures came from recreation, airline fares, health care, apparel, personal care, and education. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 0.2% MoM in December 2025, unchanged from September 2025 (Figure 1). It should be noted that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to the government shutdown, resulting in the absence of CPI data for October and monthly inflation data for November 2025.

ASRI’s net profit is projected to reach IDR 35 billion in FY25 and IDR 202 billion in FY26. This aligns with the potential increase in ASRI’s revenue, particularly from land plot sales in the real estate segment, which are expected to grow significantly in FY25 and FY26.

ASRI had a landbank of 1,936.5 ha as of 9M25. With its current landbank, ASRI has visibility for project development over the next 15–20 years. ASRI’s landbank is supported by strategically located integrated township areas along the Jakarta Tangerang Area.

ASRI booked marketing sales of IDR 2.1 trillion in 9M25. This achievement represents 40% of its full-year sales target of IDR 3.5 trillion for FY25.The majority of marketing sales were generated from residential houses and land plots, totaling IDR 1.3 trillion, mainly contributed by Sutera Rasuna, The Gramercy, and Sutera Nexen.

We assign a Buy recommendation on ASRI with an estimated fair value of IDR 268 per share, implying a potential upside of 41.05%. This recommendation is based on our Discounted Cash Flow valuation, using a required return of 10.71% and a terminal growth rate of 1.50%.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Tingkat inflasi tahunan AS tetap stabil di 2.7% YoY pada Desember 2025, sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar, didorong perlambatan signifikan di sektor energi dengan kenaikan harga hanya 2.3% YoY akibat penurunan harga BBM -3.4% YoY, meski perumahan naik 3.2% YoY. Inflasi inti tahunan juga tidak berubah di 2.6% YoY dan di bawah perkiraan 2.7% YoY. Meski demikian, inflasi secara bulanan naik 0.3% MoM.

Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) RI, melaporkan total nilai restitusi pajak sepanjang 2025 mencapai Rp361.2 triliun. Angka ini naik signifikan 35.94% secara tahunan dibanding tahun 2024 yang tercatat Rp265.7 triliun. Nilai tersebut diperoleh dari selisih antara realisasi penerimaan pajak bruto dan realisasi sementara penerimaan pajak neto.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Selasa (13/1).

Penurunan kinerja JPMorgan memicu koreksi  saham-saham perbankan.

Laju inflasi AS sebesar 0.3% MoM dan 2.7% YoY di Desember 2025, sama seperti bulan sebelumnya dan sesuai dengan estimasi (13/1).

MA di AS akan mendengarkan argumen terkait upaya Presiden Trump untuk memecat Gubernur Fed Lisa Cook (21/1).

Harga minyak mentah menguat (13/1) setelah Presiden Trump berjanji untuk membantu para demonstran Iran dan membatalkan pertemuan dengan para pejabat Iran.

Program mandatori B40 pada BBM solar direalisasikan pada tahun ini.

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 1 bps di level 4.175%.

Harga emas sempat mencapai rekor tertinggi di US$4,634/troy oz (13/1).

IHSG diperkirakan masih berkonsolidasi pada kisaran 8840-9000, selama tidak ditutup di atas level 9000.

Top picks (14/1): BBNI, BMRI, PGEO, JPFA dan ISAT.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

January 14th, 2026

January 13th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Senin (12/1).

Kenaikan saham teknologi memicu pemulihan indeks di tengah kekhawatiran tentang independensi the Fed.

Departemen Kehakiman AS membuka penyelidikan kriminal terhadap Chairman the Fed Jerome Powell.

Investor mengantisipasi pengumuman MSCI mengenai kebijakan baru perhitungan free float yang akan diumumkan pada akhir bulan ini.

Timbul kecemasan bahwa defisit APBN 2026 dapat melampaui batas 3% dari PDB.

Data penjualan ritel Indonesia meningkat 6.3% YoY di November 2025 dari 4.3% YoY di Oktober 2025.

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps di level 4.187%.

Harga emas spot menguat 2.2% di level US$4,609/troy oz (12/1), setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi baru di US$4,629/troy oz.

IHSG diperkirakan bergerak sideways cenderung melemah dan berpeluang menguji support di 8725-8800.

Top picks (13/1): TLKM, KLBF, ASII, BTPS dan MBMA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Goldman Sachs memprediksi ekonomi AS akan mendapat stimulus tahun ini melalui pemotongan pajak, kenaikan upah riil, dan peningkatan kekayaan rumah tangga, sementara laju inflasi diperkirakan mulai mereda. Selain itu, The Fed akan memberikan dua kali lagi pemangkasan suku bunga masing-masing sebesar 25 basis poin pada bulan Juni dan September 2026.

Penjualan ritel Indonesia meningkat sebesar 6.3% YoY pada November 2025 dari 4.3% YoY di Oktober 2025 dan mencatatkan tujuh bulan berturut-turut pertumbuhan. Pertumbuhan penjualan menguat diantaranya pada kelompok makanan, minuman, dan tembakau (8.5% YoY) dan suku cadang dan aksesori kendaraan bermotor (17.7% YoY). Secara bulanan, aktivitas penjualan ritel meningkat sebesar 1.5% MoM pada November 2025 dari 0.6% MoM pada Oktober 2025.

Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slightly decreased to 123.5 in December 2025 from 124.0 in November, reflecting sustained consumer confidence. The Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) fell to 135.6, while the Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) saw a slight decline to 111.4. Despite this, the Job Availability Index rose to 106.5, indicating stable labor market conditions. Household spending allocation showed a slight decrease in consumption and debt repayments, while savings increased to 14.9%. Retail sales are projected to grow 4.4% YoY in December 2025, with categories such as automotive parts, food, and beverages showing strong performance.

U.S. labor market conditions in December 2025 displayed mixed dynamics across key indicators, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate, wage growth, and job openings. Overall, the latest labor market data point to a moderation in labor market conditions. This development is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut policy rates in December 2025, aimed at supporting and strengthening the resilience of the U.S. labor market.

January 12th, 2026