SMRA booked revenue of IDR 2.23 trillion in 1Q26, growing 6.2% YoY, supported by stable growth from both recurring revenue (+6.1% YoY) and development revenue (+6.2% YoY). Net profit remained relatively stable at IDR 318 billion amid margin normalization and higher operating expenses.

1Q26 net profit accounted for 27.8% of our FY26 estimate, while total revenue reached approximately 21.0% of our full-year forecast. This indicates earnings performance remains broadly in line with expectations despite a softer property market environment.

SMRA recorded solid marketing sales of IDR 1.20 trillion in 1Q26, increase from IDR 877 billion in 1Q25 and representing around 23% of its FY26 target of IDR 5.2 trillion. Greater Jakarta remained the main contributor, while landed houses continued to dominate total sales mix.

Recurring income continued to show stable growth, supported by the retail mall and hospitality segments. Mall revenue increased 6% YoY with occupancy rates remaining strong at 84%–97%, while estate and property management revenue grew 11% YoY, supporting cash flow stability.

SMRA remains focused on integrated township development through residential expansion and recurring income growth. The company continues to develop Summarecon Tangerang as a new township while expanding its commercial ecosystem through Summarecon Mall Makassar, supported by favorable economic growth prospects and VAT incentives.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Selasa (12/5).

Penurunan indeks dipicu oleh kurangnya terobosan antara AS dan Iran serta dimulainya kembali aksi jual obligasi global.

Defisit APBN mencapai Rp164.4 triliun atau setara 0.64%  PDB per 30 April 2026.

Presiden Prabowo berencana pidato tentang Kerangka Ekonomi Makro dan Pokok-Pokok Kebijakan Fiskal (KEM-PPKF) RAPBN 2027 di DPR (20/5).

Menurut konsensus, BI Rate diperkirakan naik 25 bps menjadi 5% (20/5).

Harga minyak mentah sedikit turun tetapi masih di atas US$100/barel (19/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 4 bps ke level 4.667%  (19/5).

Harga emas spot melemah 2% di level US$4,474/troy oz (19/5).

IHSG diperkirakan berpotensi uji level support di 6250-6300.

Top picks (20/5): ASII, JPFA, AMRT, ULTJ dan BRIS.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Tingkat inflasi umum Kanada naik menjadi 2.8% YoY pada April 2026 dari 2.4% YoY pada Maret 2013, mencapai level tertinggi dalam dua tahun, meskipun masih berada di bawah konsensus pasar sebesar 3.1% YoY dari Timur Tengah akibat perang di kawasan tersebut yang mendorong kenaikan harga bahan bakar dan listrik.

Gubernur Bank Indonesia mengatakan bahwa arah kebijakan moneter 2026 akan lebih memprioritaskan stabilitas ekonomi ketimbang mendorong pertumbuhan. Hal ini disebabkan oleh tingginya suku bunga AS dan dan tekanan geopolitik global, mendorong penguatan dolar AS dan memicu pelarian modal dari negara berkembang.

May 20th, 2026

TUGU booked a solid 1Q26 performance amid PSAK 117 implementation and rising global geopolitical uncertainty, with net profit increasing 36.4% YoY to IDR 277 billion, supported by a 31.5% YoY rise in insurance service revenue to IDR 461 billion.

Underwriting quality remained well maintained, particularly in the energy and marine segments, while operating profit increased to IDR 452 billion despite an 8.1% YoY decline in investment income due to financial market normalization. As of 1Q26, net profit has reached around 26% of our FY26 estimate.

TUGU continues to maintain strong fundamentals, supported by an RBC ratio of 410.9% in FY25, significantly above the regulatory minimum of 120%, providing ample capacity for business expansion and risk absorption.

TUGU has also maintained its AM Best A- international rating for eight consecutive years, reinforcing its credibility among global insureds and reinsurers, particularly in the energy and marine sectors, whilst management continues to apply prudent underwriting amid rising geopolitical risks.

Danantara’s plan to consolidate state-owned insurance companies by 2026 places TUGU in a strategically important position, supported by its strong relationship with Pertamina, international rating stability, and established role within Indonesia’s national energy insurance ecosystem.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report
PT Gudang Garam Tbk – GGRM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>The Indonesian cigarette industry has undergone one of its most challenging periods over FY15–FY25, marked by cumulative **tobacco excise hikes of c.109%**, weakening consumer purchasing power, and increasingly visible downtrading trends toward lower-priced products. Industry dynamics have shifted materially, reflected in **declining market share for the premium SKM segment**, **rising contribution from SKT & SKL products**, as well as slower industry volume growth. These conditions have significantly pressured profitability across major cigarette producers, including GGRM.

>Despite the challenging industry backdrop, **we believe GGRM remains fundamentally supported by its strong market position**, extensive nationwide distribution network, and large-scale operational footprint, particularly within the Machine-Made Kretek Cigarette (SKM) segment. **Supported by more than 60 years of operational experience and nationwide distribution** integration through PT Surya Madistrindo, **GGRM continues to maintain one of the strongest distribution capabilities in the domestic cigarette industry**.

>Entering FY26F, we believe GGRM could begin to show gradual signs of earnings normalization following several years of pressure on volumes, margins, and operating leverage.** We estimate FY26F net profit could recover to c.IDR 2.5 trillion (+61% YoY)**, supported by lower financing costs, gradual operational recovery, and improving cost structure. **Our key FY26F–FY28F assumptions** include: 1) ASP growth of c.2–3% annually, 2) no further excise tax hikes over the next several years, and 3) gradual sales volume recovery with low-single digit growth supported by a more stable pricing environment.

>We also see room for gradual margin recovery going forward, supported by stabilizing excise expenses, which historically accounted for >80% of total COGS. In our view, **a more stable excise environment** combined with **improving sales volumes** could gradually lift gross profit margin toward 10%–11% over FY26F–FY28F. In addition, GGRM continues to maintain a very solid balance sheet profile, supported by positive free cash flow generation, very low leverage, and a projected transition from net debt of IDR5.7 trillion FY24 to net cash of c.IDR5.2 trillion by FY26F.

>Currently, GGRM is trading at c.12.78x FY26F P/E, or around -1 standard deviation below its 10-year historical average valuation. We view the current valuation as relatively attractive, particularly as the market appears to have largely priced in prolonged structural pressures, while the potential for a more stable excise environment and gradual volume recovery could support earnings normalization over the medium term.

Full Report :

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Contact Us:
WA: 08119560188
IG: phintracosekuritasofficial
YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official
TELE: phintasprofits

U.S. NAHB Hosing Market Index naik menjadi 37 pada Mei 2026 dari 34 pada April 2026,
melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 35, menunjukkan adanya perbaikan pada sentimen
pengembang rumah. Peningkatan dipengaruhi oleh membaiknya kondisi penjualan saat ini,
ekspektasi penjualan enam bulan ke depan, dan lalu lintas calon pembeli, yang masing-masing
naik 3 poin menjadi 40, 45, dan 25 pada Mei 2026.

Posisi Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Indonesia tumbuh 3.8% YoY di 1Q26, lebih rendah dibandingkan
pertumbuhan 5.5% YoY di 4Q25. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh aliran modal masuk asing pada Surat
Berharga Negara (SBN) internasional seiring tetap terjaganya kepercayaan investor terhadap
prospek perekonomian Indonesia.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Senin (18/5).

Sebelumnya indeks melemah lebih dalam akibat sentimen negatif dari tekanan jual di pasar obligasi serta kekhawatiran akan meningkatnya eskalasi AS-Iran.

Presiden Trump mengatakan menunda serangan militer yang direncanakan terhadap Iran pada hari Selasa.

Yield obligasi pemerintah beberapa negara cenderung naik karena kecemasan akan inflasi.

Harga minyak menguat lebih dari 2%, meskipun Presiden Trump menunda serangan ke Iran (18/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik kurang dari 1 bps ke level 4.601% (18/5).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.2% di level US$4,548/troy oz (18/5), karena pelemahan Dolar AS.

Tekanan terhadap Rupiah mendorong munculnya perkiraan bahwa BI berpeluang menaikkan BI Rate pada pekan ini.

Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak pada kisaran 6400-6700.

Top picks (19/5): MEDC, ELSA, PGAS, TLKM dan BBCA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

May 19th, 2026

JPFA booked revenue growth of 23.6% YoY to IDR17.71 trillion in 1Q26. All business segments booked an increase in sales, with the highest sales increase from the poultry breeding segment of 29.8% YoY to IDR1.09 trillion, followed by sales in the commercial farm segment increased by 26.29% YoY to IDR7.04 trillion in line with the increase in sales volume during the Ramadan period.

In terms of profitability, almost all segments booked an increase in operating profit, except for the aquaculture segment, which decreased by 15.95% YoY to IDR92 billion in 1Q26. Operating profit in the poultry breeding segment booked the highest increase of 287.61% YoY to IDR784 billion, followed by the operating profit in the commercial farm segment, which grew 237.46% YoY to IDR862 billion in 1Q26, driven by volume growth and stable prices for broilers and Day Old Chicks (DOC).

JPFA’s net profit grew 166.96% YoY to IDR1.82 trillion in 1Q26. In terms of expenses, the cost of goods sold increased by 13.37% YoY to IDR13.19 trillion in 1Q26, which was lower than the revenue growth, resulting in gross profit growing 67.75% YoY to IDR4.52 trillion in 1Q26.

Operating expenses increased by 23.52% YoY to IDR1.92 trillion in 1Q26, primarily due to selling and marketing expenses increased by 20.49% YoY to IDR752 billion, general and administrative expenses increased by 21.09% YoY to IDR1.15 trillion, and other expenses increased to IDR171 billion in 1Q26. Nevertheless, operating profit still grew 128.17% YoY to IDR2.6 trillion in 1Q26.

Looking forward, JPFA will focus on driving growth in the poultry processing and consumer products segments. This aligns with JPFA’s long-term strategy to become a top 5 provider of processed products that prioritizes operational efficiency. With a broad brand portfolio ranging from super-premium to affordable categories, JPFA has a strong positioning to reach various consumer segments in the domestic market.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

SIDO booked revenue decrease of 18.83% YoY to IDR640 billion in 1Q26, primarily due to SIDO’s inventory normalization efforts in its distribution channels. By segment, only the pharmacy segment experienced an increase in sales of 26.15% YoY to IDR30 billion, supported by broader product distribution to clinics and healthcare institutions.

In terms of profitability, only the pharmacy segment’s gross profit booked an increase of 95.5% YoY to IDR12 billion in 1Q26 due to strong OTC growth, improved pricing, and a better channel mix toward institutional sales.

SIDO’s net profit decreased by 36.8% YoY to IDR147 billion in 1Q26. In terms of expenses, the cost of goods sold decreased by 15.81% YoY to IDR317 billion in 1Q26, in line with the decrease in revenue. However, gross profit still decreased by 21.59% YoY to IDR323 billion due to lower revenue in 1Q26.

Operating expenses increased by 8.8% YoY to IDR137 billion in 1Q26, primarily due to an increase in general and administrative expenses of 32.07% YoY to IDR56 billion, followed by an increase in sales and marketing expenses of 2.51% YoY to IDR96 billion in 1Q26. These conditions caused operating profit to decrease by 35% YoY to IDR186 billion in 1Q26.

Guidance 2026. SIDO has revised its sales and net profit targets to flat from the previous target of 5–8% YoY growth in 2026. This aligns with SIDO’s inventory normalization efforts. Looking forward, SIDO’s primary focus is to strengthen its business foundation through three priorities: transition to a demand-based distribution model, expansion into international markets with a focus on ASEAN and Africa, and improving manufacturing efficiency and marketing optimization.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

U.S. Producer Price Index naik 1.4% MoM di April 2026 dari 0.7% MoM di Maret 2026. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan harga barang sebesar 0.2% MoM, terutama harga bahan bakar minyak yang naik sebesar 15.6% MoM, dampak dari perang AS-Iran.

Indonesia berhasil menempati peringkat pertama dunia dalam transparansi insentif perpajakan berdasarkan Global Tax Expenditures Transparency Index (GTETI) versi 2.1 yang dirilis pada 11 Mei 2026. Indonesia unggul dari 116 negara yang dinilai, melampaui beberapa negara maju seperti Korea Selatan, Australia, Kanada, Jerman, Belanda, dan Prancis. Pencapaian ini mencerminkan peningkatan kualitas, keteraturan, dan cakupan pelaporan insentif pajak nasional yang semakin komprehensif.

May 18th, 2026

May 18th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Jumat (15/5).

Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh profit taking pada saham-saham sektor teknologi serta kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS.

Pertemuan antara Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi berakhir tanpa adanya kesepakatan besar.

Dari AS, investor akan mencermati laporan keuangan Nvidia serta FOMC minutes.

Bank Sentral Tiongkok diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman utama tetap.

RDG Bank Indonesia diperkirakan akan mempertahankan BI Rate tetap di 4.75% (20/5).

Dijadwalkan akan dirilis data pertumbuhan kredit (20/5), transaksi berjalan 1Q26 (22/5) dan M2 Money Supply (22/5).

Diperkirakan jika IHSG breakdown level 6700, berpotensi menguji level 6500-6550 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: CPIN, PGEO, JPFA, BTPS, SUPA dan BULL.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –