PTBA posted solid 1Q26 results, with net profit surging 104.8% YoY to IDR801.79 billion despite slightly lower revenue (-0.3% YoY) due to heavy rainfall during the seasonally weaker early-year period. Gross profit rose 47.4% YoY, supported by lower cost of revenue, while ASP stood at US$56.68/ton.

Coal production declined 22% YoY to 6.62 million tons due to high rainfall intensity, while sales remained relatively resilient, declining only 1.1% YoY. Stripping ratio stood at 5.63x, in line with FY26 guidance.

The government plans to implement new coal sector regulations, including the Natural Resources Export Governance regulation, export duties, and windfall tax. These measures may pressure margins, increase costs, and complicate export processes during the initial implementation phase.

PTBA continues to strengthen long-term growth through coal logistics expansion and integrated energy development. The Tanjung Enim–Keramasan railway project has reached 84.42% completion and is targeted to operate in 2H26, while downstream projects include DME, SNG, artificial graphite, anode sheet, and potassium humate fertilizer.

Key risks include the planned implementation of export duties, windfall tax, and the Natural Resources Export Governance regulation, all of which could potentially weigh on PTBA’s profitability going forward.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.2% YoY to Rp10,253.7 trillion in April 2026, slightly lower than the 9.7% YoY growth recorded in March 2026. Based on its components, the slowdown in M2 growth was influenced by a narrower money supply (M1), which grew by 13.6% YoY to Rp5,936.1 trillion in April 2026, down from 14.4% YoY or Rp6,033.9 trillion in March 2026. In addition, M1’s contribution to M2 declined to 57.9% in April 2026 from 58.3% in March 2026. The moderation in quasi-money growth was also one of the factors contributing to the slowdown in M2. Quasi-money grew by 4.7% YoY to Rp4,253.6 trillion in April 2026, slower than the 5.2% YoY growth of Rp4,268.4 trillion recorded in March 2026. The slowdown in M1 growth was driven by declines across all of its components, particularly rupiah demand deposits and rupiah savings deposits withdrawable at any time, which slowed to 21.3% YoY and 7.1% YoY, respectively, in April 2026, slightly lower than 26.4% YoY for rupiah demand deposits and 7.4% YoY for rupiah savings deposits withdrawable at any time in March 2026. Other M2 components also declined, contributing to the moderation in growth, such as foreign currency demand deposits, which fell to Rp760.1 trillion or grew by only 0.6% YoY in April 2026, slower than 4.3% YoY or Rp760.7 trillion in March 2026. However, this decline was partly offset by an increase in other savings deposits, which rose to Rp334.6 trillion, up 17.4% YoY in April 2026, compared with 16.2% YoY and Rp331.3 trillion in March 2026.

May 25th, 2026

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index turun ke 44.8 pada Mei 2026 dari 49.8 pada April 2026, seiring gangguan pasokan di Selat Hormuz terus mendorong kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak.

Uang beredar dalam arti luas (M2) tumbuh 9.2% YoY menjadi Rp10,253.7 triliun di April 2026, sedikit lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan 9.7% YoY pada Maret 2026. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan M1 sebesar 13.6% YoY menjadi Rp5,936.1 triliun pada April 2026, turun dari 14.4% YoY sebesar Rp6,033.9 triliun di Maret 2026.

May 25th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (22/5).

Faktor positif berasal dari indikasi kemajuan dalam upaya perdamaian untuk akhiri konflik Timur Tengah.

Kevin Warsh telah dilantik sebagai Chairman the Fed pada Jumat (22/5).

Perkembangan seputar kesepakatan AS-Iran dan dampaknya terhadap harga minyak, masih akan berpengaruh terhadap pasar global.

Bursa AS akan libur Memorial Day pada hari Senin (25/5).

Data ekonomi AS pekan ini diantaranya PCE price index, durable goods orders, dan estimasi ke-2 PDB 1Q26.

Rebalancing MSCI Mei 2026 berlaku efektif pada penutupan perdagangan 29 Mei 2026.

IHSG diperkirakan bergerak mixed pada kisaran 6000-6250 di pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: UNVR, BBRI, ESSA, WIFI, MBMA dan ADRO.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBRI delivered solid earnings growth in 1Q26, with Net Interest Income increasing 11.9% YoY to IDR 40.1 trillion, supported by lower funding costs and strong CASA growth of 13.2% YoY.

Interest expense declined 9.3% YoY despite a high interest rate environment, reflecting improved funding efficiency and maintain BBRI’s margin stability.

Loan growth accelerated to 13.7% YoY to Rp1,562.5 trillion, supported by 9.4% YoY growth in Third Party Funds, while LDR remained manageable at 87.2%.

Asset quality remained relatively stable with NPL-Gross maintained around 3%, indicating manageable credit risk despite BBRI’s large exposure to the micro and MSME segments.

Going forward, higher BI Rates may lead to increased funding costs through gradual deposit repricing, although strong CASA growth and Bank Indonesia’s KLM incentive are expected to support margin stability and credit expansion momentum.

*Full report:*

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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Kamis (21/5).

Penguatan indeks dipicu laporan bahwa draf akhir perjanjian perdamaian AS-Iran telah tercapai.

Yield U.S. Treasury jangka panjang dan harga minyak turun.

Fitch menyatakan bahwa peringkat bank Himbara berada pada level yang sama dengan peringkat Indonesia di BBB/Negatif.

Menurut S&P Global Ratings, rencana Indonesia mengendalikan ekspor komoditas secara terpusat berpotensi merugikan ekspor.

Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 2% (21/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun kurang dari 1 bps ke level 4.564% (21/5).

Harga emas spot turun 1% di level US$4,500/troy oz (21/5).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menguji level psikologis di 6000, dengan support kuat berikutnya di level 5882.

Top picks (22/5): HMSP, INDF, TINS, WIIM dan CPIN.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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May 22nd, 2026

U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI bertahan pada 51.7 pada estimasi awal Mei 2026, menunjukkan ketahanan aktivitas sektor swasta meski dengan laju ekspansi yang lebih rendah dibandingkan pada Januari 2026. Tetap kuatnya PMI AS dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan pada sektor manufaktur menjadi 55.3 meski diiringi oleh pelemahan pada sektor jasa menjadi 50.9 pada Mei 2026.

Presiden Republik Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto menyatakan bahwa pemerintah akan menetapkan target defisit APBN pada 2027 di kisaran 1.8%-2.4% terhadap PDB. Kisaran ini lebih rendah dibanding target yang ditetapkan pada 2026 sebesar 2.68%, bahkan diproyeksi bisa mencapai 2.94% jika harga minyak dunia terus naik secara signifikan di tahun 2026.

PWON delivered strong profitability growth in 1Q26, with net profit rising 28.78% YoY to IDR 512 billion, supported by revenue growth of 5.83% YoY and improving operational efficiency.

Recurring revenue increased 8.28% YoY to IDR 1.43 trillion and contributed 87% of total revenue, reflecting the resilience and stability of PWON’s recurring-based business model amid softer development sales.

Gross profitability improved, with GPM increasing to 57.18% from 55.22% in 1Q25, as cost of revenue increased only 0.93% YoY despite ongoing expansion activities.

Marketing sales reached IDR 316 billion in 1Q26, with 34% supported by VAT incentives, while future growth is expected to be driven by high-rise developments in Bekasi and Surabaya alongside optimization of existing projects.

Going forward, PWON is expected to maintain solid earnings growth supported by resilient recurring income, stable mall occupancy, improving hotel performance, and continued margin expansion, supported by its strong balance sheet and healthy cash position.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (BGM) raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 5.25% at the May 2026 RDG, after holding it at 4.75% for eight consecutive months. In addition, the Deposit Facility Rate and Lending Facility Rate were also increased by 50bps to 4.25% and 6.00%, respectively, on May 20, 2026. This policy aligns with Bank Indonesia’s focus on maintaining Rupiah exchange rate stability amid worsening global economic conditions stemming from the war in the Middle East, which has increased financial market volatility and triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. This was also influenced by global financial market sentiment, as a Fed Funds Rate (FFR) cut is not expected until the end of 2026 and is projected to increase in 2027, in line with persistently high U.S. inflation. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise amid expectations of a larger fiscal deficit.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (20/5).

Harga minyak dan yield obligasi turun karena optimisme konflik Iran dapat diselesaikan.

Bank sentral Tiongkok mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman utamanya tetap (20/5).

Pemerintah akan mewajibkan ekspor komoditas sumber daya alam dilakukan melalui BUMN yang ditunjuk Pemerintah sebagai pengekspor tunggal.

BI menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.25% (20/5).

Tingkat pertumbuhan kredit menjadi 9.98% YoY di April 2026 dari 9.49% YoY di Maret 2026 (20/5).

Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 5% (20/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 9 bps ke level 4.576% (20/5).

Harga emas spot menguat 1% di level US$4,532/troy oz (20/5).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak variatif pada kisaran support 6200-6250 dan resistance pada 6400-6450.

Top picks (21/5): PTBA, CTRA, UNVR, BBTN dan WIIM.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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May 21st, 2026

Gubernur Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson, menyatakan dukungannya untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level saat ini sebesar 3.75% pada FOMC meeting Juni 2026. Ia menegaskan bahwa penurunan tingkat suku bunga boleh dilakukan setelah ada kemajuan yang berkelanjutan dalam menekan laju inflasi.

Bank Indonesia meningkatkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 50bps menjadi 5.25% pada Mei 2026 dari 4.75% pada April 2026. Hal ini ditujukan untuk memperkuat Rupiah, menahan risiko imported inflation, dan menjaga inflasi tetap berada pada kisaran target pemerintah sebesar 2.5%±1%.