GDP Growth Rate 2Q26 Adv. Est: 1.50% QoQ
PCE July 2026: 3.70% YoY
Core PCE July 2026: 3.30% YoY

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 1.5% QoQ in the second estimate of 2Q26, unchanged from the first estimate of 2Q26, but slowed from a 2.1% QoQ growth in 1Q26. Consumption-based inflation indicators were recorded stable as shown by Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) of 3.7% YoY and Core PCE of 3.3% YoY in July 2026, but still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. In addition, the US personal income rose for nine consecutive months to US$27.11 trillion or grew by 0.4% MoM in July 2026 from a 0.2% MoM growth in June 2026, reflected the resilience of the US economy amid energy disruption and high borrowing costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Rabu (26/8).

Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh data inflasi PCE bulan Juli yang sedikit lebih tinggi dari perkiraan.

Inflasi PCE tetap di level 3.7% YoY pada Juli 2026, sedikit di atas estimasi 3.6% YoY (26/8).

Ekonomi AS tumbuh 1.5% pada 2Q26, melambat dari 2.1% pada 1Q26, namun sesuai estimasi (26/8).

Menurut CME FedWatch’s tool, peluang Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga tetap pada September meningkat menjadi hampir 64% (26/8).

Bank Indonesia akan memperkuat pengawasan lalu lintas devisa dengan memanfaatkan teknologi pengawasan.

Harga minyak Brent ditutup melemah tipis pada level US$87/barel (26/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps di level 4.649% (26/8).

Harga emas spot ditutup melemah 1.4% di level US$4,592/troy oz (26/8).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran 6,350–6,450.

Top picks (27/8): ASII, GJTL, INKP, MAPA dan INDF.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 27th, 2026

Net profit declined 5.7% YoY to IDR3.61 trillion, with margin income remained stable at IDR14.02 trillion, supported by a 6.6% YoY decline in profit sharing expenses to IDR4.31 trillion.

Financing growth remained strong, rising 16.0% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to IDR340.09 trillion, driven by the consumer and gold businesses, while deposits grew 21.8% YoY to IDR393.34 trillion, supported by 19.5% YoY CASA growth.

Asset quality remained well controlled, with gross NPF improving to 1.80% from 1.87% in 6M25, while CoC declined to 0.62% from 0.95%, supporting an increase in ROE Tier-1 to 18.14%.

BRIS maintained its FY26 guidance, targeting 14.0%-16.0% financing growth, CoC below 1.00%, and NIM above 5.50%, while FBI grew 38.2% YoY to IDR4.06 trillion, driven by gold related businesses and treasury.

We expect earnings growth to accelerate, with net profit projected at IDR8.74 trillion in FY26E (+15.5% YoY) and IDR9.81 trillion in FY27F (+12.2% YoY), supported by high margin retail expansion, bullion banking, and digital adoption.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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HMSP’s revenue rose 2.4% YoY to IDR56.50 trillion in 1H26, achieving a 49% run rate against our FY26 forecast of IDR114 trillion.

Conventional cigarettes remain the core revenue drive with SKM contributed 61% of revenue at IDR34.23 trillion, followed by SKT at 29% or IDR16.41 trillion, while SPM and SPT accounted for 5% and 1%, respectively.

SFP continues to gain traction, Smoke-free products grew 8.71% YoY to IDR1.23 trillion, highlighting HMSP’s ongoing portfolio diversification through ZYN, IQOS, and VEEV, which could provide additional long-term growth opportunities.

Net profit surged 97.06% YoY to IDR4.19 trillion, supported by 10% YoY gross profit growth and 44% YoY operating profit growth, while NPM, GPM, and OPM reached 7%, 19%, and 10%, respectively.

Sales volume declined 1.3% YoY, primarily due to ongoing downtrading and the proliferation of illicit cigarettes, with the SKT segment recording a more pronounced 13% YoY decline. Nevertheless, continued expansion of smoke-free products and improved pricing should provide support for HMSP’s profitability and longer-term growth prospects.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) booked net profit decrease of 2.2% YoY to IDR3.44 trillion in 6M26, as interest income decreased 6.2% YoY to IDR11.62 trillion, partially offset by a 12.1% YoY reduction in interest expense to IDR5.07 trillion. Net interest income decreased 1.1% YoY to IDR6.55 trillion, with NIM decreasing 12 bps to 3.84% (vs 3.96% in 6M25).

BNGA’s performance improved solidly this quarter. Net interest income increasing 3.5% QoQ to IDR3.33 trillion and NIM increasing to 3.9% (vs 3.8% in 1Q26). Loan growth increased to 5.10% QoQ, though net profit increased 11.1% QoQ to IDR1.81 trillion.

CASA increased 6.9% YoY to IDR193.11 trillion, lifting the CASA ratio to 71.7% (vs 69.0% in 6M25), while time deposits decreased 6.2% YoY to IDR76.22 trillion. LDR decreased to 90.5% (vs 87.3% in 6M25), reflecting a structural shift toward low cost funding with limited margin impact amid elevated interest rates.

Total loans increased 6.6% YoY to IDR247.20 trillion, led by corporate loans, which increased 13.78% YoY to IDR105.91 trillion (42.8% of total loans), followed by commercial loans, which increased 7.02% YoY to IDR37.37 trillion (15.1%). Sharia financing was the sole decreasing segment, decreasing 9.30% YoY to IDR54.01 trillion. NPL increased to 1.83% (vs 1.88% in 6M25).

Management revised FY26 guidance downward, with loan growth target cut to 3–5% (vs 6.6% in 6M26), NIM at 3.8–4.0%, ROE at 11.5–12.5%, and cost of credit raised to 1.1–1.4%, reflecting a more cautious stance amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (25/8).

Penguatan indeks dipicu oleh penurunan yield US-Treasury dan kenaikan saham semikonduktor.

Investor menantikan dirilisnya laporan keuangan Nvidia dan data inflasi PCE (26/8).

Kanada mengumumkan tarif balasan terhadap AS (25/8).

AS mengumumkan sanksi ekonomi untuk memutus jalur keuangan Iran (24/8).

BEI melakukan evaluasi berkala terhadap 14 indeks saham (24/8).

Harga minyak mentah ditutup melemah lebih dari 3% (25/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 7 bps di level 4.629% (25/8).

Harga emas spot ditutup melemah 0.1% di level US$4,647/troy oz (25/8).

Sentimen positif eksternal berpotensi mendorong IHSG rebound pada Rabu (26/8).

Top picks (26/8): ICBP, TINS, BRMS, ADRO, PTBA dan AADI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 26th, 2026

ITMG recorded solid financial performance in 1H26, with revenue rising 8.8% YoY to US$1 billion, supported by 10.2% YoY growth in the coal mining and trading segment and a higher ASP of US$81/ton from US$78/ton, while domestic sales reached US$175 million and exports contributed 83% of total revenue, led by China, Japan, and the Philippines.

ITMG’s net profit increased 15.6% YoY to US$106 million, supported by higher revenue and stronger gross and operating profit, although margins remained under pressure from rising fuel costs, with GPM at around 25% and OPM at around 13% in 2Q26, while COGS increased 7% YoY to US$744 million due to higher mining, transportation, strip ratio, and fuel costs.

ITMG’s operational performance was mixed, with coal production declining 4.8% YoY to 9.9 million tons in 1H26 due to RKAB-related uncertainties, although production rebounded 13% QoQ to 5.3 million tons in 2Q26, supporting 5.1% YoY growth in sales volume to 12.3 million tons, while 2Q26 sales volume declined 3% QoQ as the company retained inventory.

We view ITMG’s outlook as remaining supported by the company’s ability to sustain sales volume and potential upside from favorable realized coal prices, with key risks including global commodity price volatility, regulatory uncertainty across the energy sector, and dry weather conditions that could disrupt mining production and logistics.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 24th, 2026

August 24th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (21/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield berlanjut naik 3 bps ke level 4.736% (21/8).

Harga emas spot menguat 2.3% ke level US$4,619/troy oz (21/8).

Harga minyak stabil karena indikasi Iran berupaya akhiri konflik dengan AS.

AS memberlakukan tarif 50% terhadap produk Kanada pada Sabtu (22/8) dan Kanada akan memberlakukan tarif balasan mulai 8 September 2026.

Investor akan mencermati Simposium Jackson Hole (27-29 Agustus 2026).

Investor cermati indeks PCE, durable orders, dan revisi tahunan data nonfarm payrolls.

IHSG ditutup di atas MA100 serta berpotensi menguji level resistance di 6,630 dan menutup gap di 6,705,

Top picks pekan ini: BBRI, CUAN, PTRO, BRPT, BRIS dan BBTN.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Broad money supply (M2) was recorded at IDR 10,371.1 trillion, growing by 8.3% YoY in July 2026, slowing from 8.7% YoY growth in June 2026. By component, the growth was driven by both narrow money supply (M1) and quasi-money. M1 was recorded at IDR 5,908.7 trillion, growing by 10.0% YoY in July 2026, while quasi-money stood at IDR 4,375.9 trillion, growing by 5.6% YoY. In addition, M2 growth in July 2026 was primarily supported by loan growth of 13.0% YoY and a 4.6% YoY increase in net claims on the central government.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk – JPFA.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>JPFA booked 2Q26 net profit of IDR 659bn (-63.7% QoQ; +18.6% YoY), bringing 1H26 net profit to IDR 2.48tr (+100.2% YoY), relatively in line with our and consensus estimates (56.4%/56.1%).

>Revenue reached IDR 17.64tr in 2Q26 (-0.4% QoQ; +34.2% YoY). However, higher production costs and weaker live bird and DOC ASPs narrowed NPM to 3.7% (vs 10.3% in 1Q26).

>Animal feed EBIT remained resilient at IDR 1.02tr (+1.2% QoQ; +33.2% YoY), despite its margin declining to 9.0% (vs 9.7% in 1Q26).

>Commercial farm and consumer products recorded an EBIT loss of IDR 304bn (vs a profit of IDR 1.01tr in 1Q26), reflecting post-Lebaran price normalization, the Suro period, and weaker demand during the school holidays.

>We remain constructive on JPFA, supported by a recovery in poultry profitability and stronger downstream contribution.

>Key risks include weaker live bird/DOC prices, higher raw material costs, and weak consumer purchasing power.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 21st, 2026