The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined to 116.8 in July 2026 from 117.8 in June 2026. However, the index still reflects that consumer confidence was still in optimistic territory. Consumer optimism is supported by consumer perception of current economic conditions and expectations of future economic conditions which are in the optimistic zone but have weakened. The Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) was recorded at 107.9 in July 2026 from 109.2 in June 2026 and the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) declined to 125.7 in July 2026 from 126.4 in June 2026. In addition, retail sales on an annual basis are expected to increase by 0.9% YoY in July 2026.

INDF’s revenue grew 9.5% YoY to IDR65.53tn in 1H26, broadly in line with our expectations, supported by growth across all business segments, particularly Consumer Branded Products and Bogasari.

Gross profit and EBIT increased 7.8% and 14% YoY, respectively, with EBIT margin improving to 20.28%. However, net profit fell 19.1% YoY to IDR4.72tn due to unrealized forex losses from ICBP’s USD-denominated bonds, while core profit remained resilient, growing 7% YoY.

The Consumer Branded Products segment grew 11.2% YoY to IDR41.74tn, contributing 64% of total revenue. Bogasari also performed strongly, with revenue rising 9.5% YoY on higher flour sales volume and ASP.

FFB production declined 4% YoY, but CPO production increased 3% YoY to 338kt, supported by a higher extraction rate of 21.5%. The company maintained a total planted area of 278k hectares as of June 2026.

Key risks include weaker consumer purchasing power, volatility in CPO and wheat prices, and further Rupiah depreciation.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update
PT Sumber Tani Agung Resources Tbk – STAA.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>STAA reported solid performance in 1H26, with net profit increasing 15.3% YoY to IDR 757bn. Revenue surged 69.1% YoY to IDR 6.1tr, reaching 53.9% of our FY26F estimate, primarily driven by full contributions from the refinery and fractionation segments. However, the revenue mix shift toward the lower-margin downstream business normalized GPM to 29.6% (vs 32.7% in 1H25) and NPM to 12.5% (vs 18.3% in 1H25).

>STAA’s operational performance showed a sequential recovery, despite remaining weaker on a cumulative basis. FFB production declined 7.2% YoY to 478k tons in 1H26. Nevertheless, production momentum improved in 2Q26, with FFB output increasing 16.0% QoQ to 257k tons (vs 221k tons in 1Q26), consistent with stronger seasonality heading into 2H.

>Lower FFB production reduced processed FFB volume by 18.7% YoY to 810k tons, resulting in CPO and PK production declining 16.8% and 19.1% YoY to 176k tons and 39k tons, respectively. Nevertheless, processing efficiency improved, with OER rising to 21.8% (vs 21.3% in 1H25). Meanwhile, the refinery ramp-up remained on track, with downstream product sales volume reaching 214k tons.

>We expect STAA’s growth momentum to continue in FY26F, supported by higher production and an increasing downstream contribution. We forecast production growth of 9.8% YoY, supported by its relatively young plantation profile with an average age of c.14 years and an improvement in FFB yield to 24.5 tons/ha (vs. 24.2 tons/ha in FY25).

>Higher upstream volume and increasing refinery and fractionation utilization should drive FY26F revenue growth of 74.8% YoY to IDR 11.25tr. However, the revenue mix shift toward downstream products is expected to normalize GPM to 27.3% (vs 32.7% in FY25). Despite this margin pressure, higher volume and operating scale should lift net profit to IDR 1.5 Trillion, with NPM normalizing to 13.6% (vs 16.6% in FY25).

>Key downside risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) regulatory changes, and (3) higher input costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 0.5% YoY in July 2026, slowing from a 1% YoY rise in June 2026. The inflation slowdown was mainly driven by food prices deflation. Food prices were continued to experience a 1.5% YoY deflation in July 2026 from a 1.6% YoY deflation in June 2026 due to lower pork prices amidst abundant supply and weak consumption. On the producer side, inflation is also slowing down, marked by an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) of 3.5% YoY in July 2026 from 4.1% YoY in June 2026 due to the easing of energy cost pressures caused by the recovery of the oil shipping supply chain in the Strait of Hormuz. On the producer side, inflation is also slowing down, marked by an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) of 3.5% YoY in July 2026 from 4.1% YoY in June 2026 due to the easing of energy cost pressures caused by the recovery of the oil shipping supply chain in the Strait of Hormuz.

Presiden The Fed Cleveland, Beth Hammack dalam pidatonya menilai kebijakan moneter AS saat ini belum cukup restriktif dan kemungkinan diperlukan beberapa kali kenaikan suku bunga The Fed untuk menekan inflasi kembali menuju target 2%. Menurut Hammack, kenaikan sebesar 25 bps saja kemungkinan tidak banyak untuk mengubah kondisi ekonomi, tetapi ia belum ingin menentukan berapa kali kenaikan diperlukan maupun level akhir suku bunga The Fed ditahun ini.

Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) tetap berada pada level optimis yaitu di atas level 100, tetapi turun ke level 116.8 pada Juli 2026 dari 117.8 pada Juni 2026. Optimisme konsumen tersebut ditopang oleh Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi Saat Ini (IKE) yang turun menjadi 107.9 pada Juni 2026 dari 109.2 pada Juli 2026 dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen (IEK) yang turun menjadi 125.7 pada Juli 2026 dari 126.4 pada Juni 2026.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah tipis pada Senin (10/8).

Kenaikan harga minyak, penurunan di sektor real estat, dan pelemahan saham teknologi membebani sentimen pasar.

Fokus perhatian investor tertuju pada data inflasi CPI (12/8) dan PPI (13/8).

Data CPI AS diperkirakan sedikit melambat di level 3.4% YoY di Juli 2026 (12/8).

Indeks keyakinan konsumen RI turun di level 116.8 pada Juli 2026 (10/8).

Data penjualan sepeda motor di Indonesia meningkat 8.3% YoY pada Juli 2026 (10/8).

Harga minyak mentah menguat sekitar 5% (10/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 4 bps di level 4.705% (10/8).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.4% di level US$4,356/troy oz (10/8).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak sideways pada kisaran 6,300-6,450.

Top picks (11/8): HRUM, ESSA, ADRO, AADI dan MYOR.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 11th, 2026

KLBF recorded 6M26 revenue growth of 14.1% YoY to IDR19.48 trillion, supported by growth across all business segments. Distribution and logistics remained the key contributor, growing 26.6% YoY to IDR7.20 trillion.

Gross profit increased only 4.2% YoY to IDR7.32 trillion, as cost of revenue increased 21.0% YoY, mainly driven by higher distribution and production costs.

Margin pressure persisted across most segments, with GPM declining to 37.6% from 41.1%, reflecting higher imported raw material costs amid Rupiah depreciation.

Net profit declined 2.7% YoY to IDR1.97 trillion, while GPM, OPM, and NPM decrease to 37.6%, 12.5%, and 10.1%, respectively, due to higher selling and operating expenses.

Liabilities increased 22.5% YtD to IDR7.31 trillion, driven by a sharp increase in short-term bank loans for working capital. Despite this, KLBF maintained a healthy capital structure, with DER at 0.28x and DAR at 0.22x.

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U.S. labor market conditions weakened in July 2026, despite the unemployment rate declining to 4.1%, as the improvement was largely driven by a shrinking labor force and a lower participation rate of 58.9%, the lowest since September 2021. NFP contracted by 23 thousand, significantly below expectations, while wage growth and job openings also continued to slow. Overall, weakening employment, hiring demand, and wage growth point to a softening labor market, potentially exacerbated by tighter immigration policies and posing downside risks to U.S. economic growth.

ICBP recorded revenue of IDR41.86 trillion (+11% YoY) in 1H26, supported by volume growth across all business segments, with nutrition & special foods, dairy, and noodles leading growth.

Gross profit and EBIT increased 9.5% and 8% YoY, respectively, but margins declined due to higher production and operating costs.

Net profit declined 33% YoY to IDR3.70tn, mainly due to a sharp increase in finance costs from unrealized forex losses on USD-denominated bonds. Further Rupiah depreciation could continue to pressure earnings given ICBP’s USD2.75bn outstanding bonds.

Management maintained its FY26 guidance of 5–7% revenue growth and 20–22% EBIT margin, supported by continued export xpansion, new product launches, and strong demand across all business segments.

We maintain our recommendation, underpinned by ICBP’s resilient operating performance, strong market leadership, and continued business expansion. Key downside risks to our investment case include weaker-than-expected consumer purchasing power, further depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar, and heightened commodity price volatility.

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BSDE reported weaker 6M26 earnings, with revenue and net profit declining 25.7% YoY and 53.3% YoY. Recurring revenue remained resilient, growing 18.6% YoY and raising its contribution to 21% of total revenue.

Marketing sales reached IDR5.12 trillion in 6M26, up 0.8% YoY and representing 51% of the FY26 target. BSD City remained the key contributor at approximately 66%, supported by strong residential and commercial demand.

Profitability remained resilient, with GPM improving to 66.5% from 63.5%, while net profit recovered 17.5% QoQ to IDR325 billion in 2Q26.

BSDE’s outlook is supported by VAT incentives, LTV relaxation, and BSDE “Royal Key” program. Contract liabilities also increased to IDR7.22 trillion from IDR6.72 trillion in FY25, providing visibility for future revenue recognition.

We project FY26 net profit at IDR2.40 trillion. Despite 6M26 earnings reaching only 25% of our estimate, we consider the target achievable, supported by potential acceleration in revenue recognition during 2H26.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBNI delivered stronger 6M26 profitability, with net income rising 6.6% YoY to IDR10.8 trillion, supported by 14.2% YoY NII growth despite NIM compression to 3.6%.

Loan growth remained robust at 24.4% YoY to IDR968.5 trillion, while TPF grew 22.3% YoY. However, the CASA ratio declined to 65.4% due to government fund placements.

Asset quality remained healthy, with Gross NPL stable at 1.9%, while ROE improved to 13.4% and CAR stood at 18.1%, providing sufficient capacity for further loan expansion.

Management lowered FY26 NIM guidance to 3.3–3.5% from 3.5–3.8%, while maintaining loan growth guidance at 8–10%, reflecting stronger loan growth but more persistent margin pressure.

We lowered our FY26 net income estimate to IDR19.7 trillion (+1.8% YoY), reflecting a more gradual earnings recovery amid higher funding costs and continued pressure on loan yields.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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U.S. Nonfarm Payroll mengalami penurunan jumlah pekerjaan sebesar 23 ribu dan berada di bawah perkiraan penambahan 80 ribu pada Juli 2026. Meski demikian, tingkat pengangguran AS turun dari 4.2% menjadi 4.1% seiring penurunan jumlah angkatan kerja sebesar 264 ribu dan tingkat partisipasi menjadi 61.4% pada Juli 2026.

Cadangan devisa Indonesia sebesar US$ 145.3 miliar setelah pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah dan intervensi BI di pasar valuta asing pada Juli 2026. Cadangan devisa tersebut setara dengan pembiayaan 5.5 bulan impor atau 5.3 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah, serta berada di atas standar kecukupan internasional sekitar 3 bulan impor pada Juli 2026.

August 10th, 2026

August 10th, 2026