Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report
PT Gudang Garam Tbk – GGRM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>The Indonesian cigarette industry has undergone one of its most challenging periods over FY15–FY25, marked by cumulative **tobacco excise hikes of c.109%**, weakening consumer purchasing power, and increasingly visible downtrading trends toward lower-priced products. Industry dynamics have shifted materially, reflected in **declining market share for the premium SKM segment**, **rising contribution from SKT & SKL products**, as well as slower industry volume growth. These conditions have significantly pressured profitability across major cigarette producers, including GGRM.

>Despite the challenging industry backdrop, **we believe GGRM remains fundamentally supported by its strong market position**, extensive nationwide distribution network, and large-scale operational footprint, particularly within the Machine-Made Kretek Cigarette (SKM) segment. **Supported by more than 60 years of operational experience and nationwide distribution** integration through PT Surya Madistrindo, **GGRM continues to maintain one of the strongest distribution capabilities in the domestic cigarette industry**.

>Entering FY26F, we believe GGRM could begin to show gradual signs of earnings normalization following several years of pressure on volumes, margins, and operating leverage.** We estimate FY26F net profit could recover to c.IDR 2.5 trillion (+61% YoY)**, supported by lower financing costs, gradual operational recovery, and improving cost structure. **Our key FY26F–FY28F assumptions** include: 1) ASP growth of c.2–3% annually, 2) no further excise tax hikes over the next several years, and 3) gradual sales volume recovery with low-single digit growth supported by a more stable pricing environment.

>We also see room for gradual margin recovery going forward, supported by stabilizing excise expenses, which historically accounted for >80% of total COGS. In our view, **a more stable excise environment** combined with **improving sales volumes** could gradually lift gross profit margin toward 10%–11% over FY26F–FY28F. In addition, GGRM continues to maintain a very solid balance sheet profile, supported by positive free cash flow generation, very low leverage, and a projected transition from net debt of IDR5.7 trillion FY24 to net cash of c.IDR5.2 trillion by FY26F.

>Currently, GGRM is trading at c.12.78x FY26F P/E, or around -1 standard deviation below its 10-year historical average valuation. We view the current valuation as relatively attractive, particularly as the market appears to have largely priced in prolonged structural pressures, while the potential for a more stable excise environment and gradual volume recovery could support earnings normalization over the medium term.

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U.S. NAHB Hosing Market Index naik menjadi 37 pada Mei 2026 dari 34 pada April 2026,
melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 35, menunjukkan adanya perbaikan pada sentimen
pengembang rumah. Peningkatan dipengaruhi oleh membaiknya kondisi penjualan saat ini,
ekspektasi penjualan enam bulan ke depan, dan lalu lintas calon pembeli, yang masing-masing
naik 3 poin menjadi 40, 45, dan 25 pada Mei 2026.

Posisi Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Indonesia tumbuh 3.8% YoY di 1Q26, lebih rendah dibandingkan
pertumbuhan 5.5% YoY di 4Q25. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh aliran modal masuk asing pada Surat
Berharga Negara (SBN) internasional seiring tetap terjaganya kepercayaan investor terhadap
prospek perekonomian Indonesia.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Senin (18/5).

Sebelumnya indeks melemah lebih dalam akibat sentimen negatif dari tekanan jual di pasar obligasi serta kekhawatiran akan meningkatnya eskalasi AS-Iran.

Presiden Trump mengatakan menunda serangan militer yang direncanakan terhadap Iran pada hari Selasa.

Yield obligasi pemerintah beberapa negara cenderung naik karena kecemasan akan inflasi.

Harga minyak menguat lebih dari 2%, meskipun Presiden Trump menunda serangan ke Iran (18/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik kurang dari 1 bps ke level 4.601% (18/5).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.2% di level US$4,548/troy oz (18/5), karena pelemahan Dolar AS.

Tekanan terhadap Rupiah mendorong munculnya perkiraan bahwa BI berpeluang menaikkan BI Rate pada pekan ini.

Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak pada kisaran 6400-6700.

Top picks (19/5): MEDC, ELSA, PGAS, TLKM dan BBCA.

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May 19th, 2026

JPFA booked revenue growth of 23.6% YoY to IDR17.71 trillion in 1Q26. All business segments booked an increase in sales, with the highest sales increase from the poultry breeding segment of 29.8% YoY to IDR1.09 trillion, followed by sales in the commercial farm segment increased by 26.29% YoY to IDR7.04 trillion in line with the increase in sales volume during the Ramadan period.

In terms of profitability, almost all segments booked an increase in operating profit, except for the aquaculture segment, which decreased by 15.95% YoY to IDR92 billion in 1Q26. Operating profit in the poultry breeding segment booked the highest increase of 287.61% YoY to IDR784 billion, followed by the operating profit in the commercial farm segment, which grew 237.46% YoY to IDR862 billion in 1Q26, driven by volume growth and stable prices for broilers and Day Old Chicks (DOC).

JPFA’s net profit grew 166.96% YoY to IDR1.82 trillion in 1Q26. In terms of expenses, the cost of goods sold increased by 13.37% YoY to IDR13.19 trillion in 1Q26, which was lower than the revenue growth, resulting in gross profit growing 67.75% YoY to IDR4.52 trillion in 1Q26.

Operating expenses increased by 23.52% YoY to IDR1.92 trillion in 1Q26, primarily due to selling and marketing expenses increased by 20.49% YoY to IDR752 billion, general and administrative expenses increased by 21.09% YoY to IDR1.15 trillion, and other expenses increased to IDR171 billion in 1Q26. Nevertheless, operating profit still grew 128.17% YoY to IDR2.6 trillion in 1Q26.

Looking forward, JPFA will focus on driving growth in the poultry processing and consumer products segments. This aligns with JPFA’s long-term strategy to become a top 5 provider of processed products that prioritizes operational efficiency. With a broad brand portfolio ranging from super-premium to affordable categories, JPFA has a strong positioning to reach various consumer segments in the domestic market.

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SIDO booked revenue decrease of 18.83% YoY to IDR640 billion in 1Q26, primarily due to SIDO’s inventory normalization efforts in its distribution channels. By segment, only the pharmacy segment experienced an increase in sales of 26.15% YoY to IDR30 billion, supported by broader product distribution to clinics and healthcare institutions.

In terms of profitability, only the pharmacy segment’s gross profit booked an increase of 95.5% YoY to IDR12 billion in 1Q26 due to strong OTC growth, improved pricing, and a better channel mix toward institutional sales.

SIDO’s net profit decreased by 36.8% YoY to IDR147 billion in 1Q26. In terms of expenses, the cost of goods sold decreased by 15.81% YoY to IDR317 billion in 1Q26, in line with the decrease in revenue. However, gross profit still decreased by 21.59% YoY to IDR323 billion due to lower revenue in 1Q26.

Operating expenses increased by 8.8% YoY to IDR137 billion in 1Q26, primarily due to an increase in general and administrative expenses of 32.07% YoY to IDR56 billion, followed by an increase in sales and marketing expenses of 2.51% YoY to IDR96 billion in 1Q26. These conditions caused operating profit to decrease by 35% YoY to IDR186 billion in 1Q26.

Guidance 2026. SIDO has revised its sales and net profit targets to flat from the previous target of 5–8% YoY growth in 2026. This aligns with SIDO’s inventory normalization efforts. Looking forward, SIDO’s primary focus is to strengthen its business foundation through three priorities: transition to a demand-based distribution model, expansion into international markets with a focus on ASEAN and Africa, and improving manufacturing efficiency and marketing optimization.

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U.S. Producer Price Index naik 1.4% MoM di April 2026 dari 0.7% MoM di Maret 2026. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan harga barang sebesar 0.2% MoM, terutama harga bahan bakar minyak yang naik sebesar 15.6% MoM, dampak dari perang AS-Iran.

Indonesia berhasil menempati peringkat pertama dunia dalam transparansi insentif perpajakan berdasarkan Global Tax Expenditures Transparency Index (GTETI) versi 2.1 yang dirilis pada 11 Mei 2026. Indonesia unggul dari 116 negara yang dinilai, melampaui beberapa negara maju seperti Korea Selatan, Australia, Kanada, Jerman, Belanda, dan Prancis. Pencapaian ini mencerminkan peningkatan kualitas, keteraturan, dan cakupan pelaporan insentif pajak nasional yang semakin komprehensif.

May 18th, 2026

May 18th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Jumat (15/5).

Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh profit taking pada saham-saham sektor teknologi serta kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS.

Pertemuan antara Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi berakhir tanpa adanya kesepakatan besar.

Dari AS, investor akan mencermati laporan keuangan Nvidia serta FOMC minutes.

Bank Sentral Tiongkok diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman utama tetap.

RDG Bank Indonesia diperkirakan akan mempertahankan BI Rate tetap di 4.75% (20/5).

Dijadwalkan akan dirilis data pertumbuhan kredit (20/5), transaksi berjalan 1Q26 (22/5) dan M2 Money Supply (22/5).

Diperkirakan jika IHSG breakdown level 6700, berpotensi menguji level 6500-6550 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: CPIN, PGEO, JPFA, BTPS, SUPA dan BULL.

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U.S. headline inflation rose by 0.6% MoM in April 2026, lower than the 0.9% MoM increase recorded in March 2026. Nevertheless, the increase in inflation was still driven by energy costs, which rose by 3.8% MoM in April 2026, compared to a 10.9% MoM increase in March 2026, due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

KLBF booked revenue growth of 10.13% YoY to IDR 9.68 trillion in 1Q26. This growth was driven by increased sales across all business segments. The distribution and logistics segment booked the highest revenue growth of
21.13% YoY to IDR 3.49 trillion in 1Q26.

In terms of profitability, almost all segments booked an increase in gross profit, except for the nutritional segment, which experienced a limited decrease of 0.65% YoY to IDR 1.15 trillion in 1Q26. Meanwhile, gross profit in the distribution and logistics segment experienced the highest increase of 13.62% YoY to IDR 411 billion in 1Q26 in line with a significant increase in revenue.

KLBF’s net profit decreased by 5.2% YoY to IDR1.05 trillion in 1Q26. In terms of costs, the cost of goods sold increased by 15.52% YoY to IDR5.97 trillion in 1Q26, higher than the increase in revenue. This condition caused gross profit to grow moderately by 2.43% YoY to IDR3.7 trillion in 1Q26.

Operating expenses increased by 6.97% YoY to IDR2.4 trillion in 1Q26, primarily driven by an increase in selling expenses of 7.85% YoY to IDR1.89 trillion, general and administrative expenses increased by 3.31% YoY to IDR386 billion, while research and development expenses increased by 5.9% YoY to IDR113 billion in 1Q26. These conditions caused operating profit to decrease by 4.99% YoY to IDR1.3 trillion in 1Q26.

Looking forward, KLBF will continue to maintain business efficiency. This will be implemented through the digitalization and management of marketing effectiveness to drive growth. In addition, KLBF also manages the use of the renminbi for imported raw materials, therefore reducing dependence on the US$.

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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash Notes
PT Dayamitra Telekomunikasi Tbk – MTEL.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

MTEL: Deep Value Meets Defensive Growth

>MTEL delivered an overall in-line 1Q26 performance, supported by healthy tenant growth and continued improvement in asset utilization. MTEL reported revenue of IDR 2.29 Trillion (+1.4% YoY; -13.6% QoQ), representing 23.1% of our FY26F estimate and 23.2% of consensus, while EBITDA reached IDR 1.90 Trillion (+0.9% YoY; -8.2% QoQ) with EBITDA margin remaining solid at 82.67%.

>At the bottom line, net profit came in at IDR 545 Billion (+3.6% YoY; -5.7% QoQ), equivalent to 23.3% of our forecast and 24.1% of consensus, indicating earnings remain broadly on track. Operationally, MTEL continued to demonstrate resilient execution, with total tower count reaching 40,327 (+1.9% YoY) and tenant count increasing to 63,333 (+5.1% YoY), driving tenancy ratio improvement to 1.57x (vs. 1.52x in 1Q25).

>From a segmental perspective, tower leasing remained the key revenue contributor in 1Q26, accounting for c.80% of total revenue, with revenue reaching IDR 1.85 Trillion (+0.3% YoY). Meanwhile, the fiber segment delivered stronger growth, with revenue increasing to IDR 152 Billion (+8.5% YoY), supported by fiber network expansion to 58,279 km (+8.8% YoY), alongside rising operator demand for Fiber-to-the-Tower (FTTT) deployment to enhance network capacity and service quality. That said, monetization remained in a normalization phase, as reflected by average revenue per fiber declining to IDR 740K (-8.7% YoY).

>Looking ahead, management reiterated its FY26 guidance, targeting revenue growth broadly in line with industry growth, alongside a target of c.2.5K new tenant additions, comprising 1K from Built-to-Suit (BTS) and 1.5K from colocation, which we believe should support gradual improvement in tenancy ratio. In addition, management has started to highlight Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a potential new growth driver, with deployment opportunities across c.8,000 towers, including c.2,000 highly potential sites. With its existing tower footprint and fiberized infrastructure, we believe MTEL is strategically positioned to capture this opportunity, supporting solid earnings visibility going forward.

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BRIS posted a net profit of IDR 2.20 trillion in 1Q26, growing 17.1% YoY and 10.0% QoQ, supported by higher margin income and lower profit-sharing expenses. Net profit and margin income have reached 25% and 22% of our FY26 estimates, respectively.

Financing grew 14.4% YoY to IDR 328.54 trillion despite a more selective expansion strategy. Meanwhile, Third Party Funds increased 18.0% YoY, driven by strong CASA growth of 21.4% YoY, lifting the CASA ratio to 62.70%.

The stronger CASA composition helped maintain funding cost efficiency and supported margin expansion, with NIM improving to 5.59% in 1Q26. This indicates BRIS’s ability to preserve spreads amid competitive industry liquidity conditions.

Gross NPF improved to 1.80% from 1.88% in 1Q25, reflecting disciplined risk management despite continued double-digit financing growth. Profitability also strengthened, with Tier-1 ROE rising to 19.36%, while CAR remained solid at 20.95%.

BRIS is targeting 14–16% financing growth in FY26 while maintaining prudent asset quality management. Provision expenses declined 6.8% YoY to IDR 602 billion, significantly lower than the average of around IDR 2 trillion in 1Q22–1Q24, supporting expectations for FY26 net profit to reach around IDR 8.90 trillion.

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May 13th, 2026