CCI increased to 119.9 in October 2026, although still below its three-year average of 122.5. Despite contained inflation at 3.23%, Rupiah depreciation and rising essential goods prices could weigh on purchasing power, particularly for non-essential spending.

Retail sales growth moderated to 0.6% YoY in September 2026 from 1.3% in August, following contractions in 2Q26. Weak durable goods purchasing trends among low- and middle-income households indicate continued pressure on discretionary spending.

Rising digital adoption and video commerce transactions (+90% YoY) provide growth opportunities. The upcoming festive season could support consumer spending, benefiting AMRT and MIDI in daily necessities, as well as ERAA and ACES in discretionary products.

Companies under our coverage continued expanding throughout 9M26, with AMRT strengthening its presence outside Java, MIDI adding 121 stores, ERAA opening 399 stores, and ACES expanding AZKO and NEKA networks. KDMP’s impact on modern retailers is expected to remain relatively limited.

ERAA and AMRT shows stable growth throughout 2026, with AMRT’s strong store expansion despite concerns over potential restriction due to KDMP as well as ERAA’s strong portfolio diversification into non-electronic segment. Key risks include weaker purchasing power, potential store expansion restrictions, and intensifying e-commerce competition.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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GDP of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical, and Traditional Medicine Industry reached IDR 129.2 trillion in 3Q26 (+14.1% YoY), supported by resilient healthcare demand and the manufacturing PMI remaining in expansionary territory. Increasing healthcare needs and public awareness are expected to support industry growth.

Higher inflation and rupiah depreciation have increased raw material and distribution costs, particularly in the consumer health and energy drink segments. Meanwhile, BPJS participants reached 284.7 million, although higher utilization may shift demand toward lower-margin generic drugs, potentially pressuring profitability.

Dependence on imported raw materials remains high at 70–80%. In 9M26, pharmaceutical imports increased by 5.0% YoY to US$1.11 billion, while inorganic chemical imports reached US$3.58 billion. Pharmaceutical exports decreased by 2.8% YoY to US$526 million, while CPOB certified production facilities remain limited and concentrated in Java.

The government allocated IDR 244.9 trillion for healthcare spending in 2027, focusing on healthcare facilities and BPJS. Import substitution is promoted through local API and blood plasma development, while Minister of Health Regulation No. 5 of 2026 creates opportunities for local producers. However, drug price controls and buffer stock obligations may pressure margins. Indonesia’s pharmaceutical market reached IDR 155.14 trillion in FY25 (+5.5% YoY), supported by free sales growth.

KLBF has opportunities through product innovation and portfolio expansion, while SIDO may benefit from herbal sales recovery and international expansion. Key risks include imported raw material dependence, rupiah depreciation, regulatory changes, and industry competition.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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GGRM’s revenue declined by 8.67% YoY to Rp61.49 trillion in 9M26, mainly due to rising illegal cigarette sales and consumer downtrading. All cigarette segments recorded declines, while construction and other segments posted growth but remained insignificant contributors.

Despite weaker revenue, GGRM’s net profit surged by 307% YoY to Rp4.52 trillion in 9M26, supported by lower cost of revenue and operating expenses. Accordingly, we raised our FY26 net profit forecast to Rp5.91 trillion from Rp3.40 trillion previously.

GGRM continues to diversify through Dhoho International Airport, designated as an embarkation and debarkation point for the 2027 Hajj pilgrimage, potentially supporting future non-cigarette revenue growth.

We revised our valuation and projection for FY26 onwards, with Key risks including cigarette excise uncertainty, weakening purchasing power, and persistent illegal cigarette sales.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Nov 1oth, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Senin (9/11).

Penguatan dipicu oleh penurunan harga minyak mentah serta reboundnya saham sektor teknologi.

Investor akan mencermati dirilisnya indeks harga konsumen pada hari Selasa (10/11) serta indeks harga produsen pada hari Jumat (13/11).

Inflasi AS diperkirakan sebesar 0.3% MoM pada Oktober 2026 (9/11).

Harga minyak Brent dan WTI masing-masing ditutup melemah lebih dari 5% dan 4% (9/11).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 1 bps pada level 4.876% (9/11).

Harga emas spot ditutup menguat 1.6% di level US$4,129/troy oz (9/11).

Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen Indonesia naik di level 119.9 pada Oktober 2026 (9/11).

Penjualan mobil baru di Indonesia meningkat 10.1% YoY (9/11).

Penjualan sepeda motor di domestik tumbuh 7.9% YoY pada Oktober 2026 (9/11).

Diperkirakan IHSG melanjutkan penguatan dan uji level 5,100-5,200.

Top picks (10/11): AADI, ASII, ITMG, BBCA, BBNI dan DSSA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Code : ANDA
Sector : Energy
Sub-Sector : Oil, Gas & Coal Equipment & Services

———————————————
PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif :
23 November 2026

Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum :
24 November 2026 – 27 November 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan :
27 November 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham :
30 November 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI :
1 Desember 2026

———————————————
STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Sebanyak-banyaknya 1,676,000,000 saham baru dengan nilai nominal Rp10 per saham, yang mewakili 25.10% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh Perseroan setelah IPO.

Nilai Nominal :
Rp10 per lembar saham

Harga Penawaran :
Rp158 – Rp189 per lembar saham

Jumlah Penawaran Umum :
Sebesar-besarnya Rp316.764.000.000, (tiga ratus enam belas miliar tujuh ratus enam puluh empat juta Rupiah).

Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek:
PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas

Penjamin Emisi :
Akan ditentukan kemudian

———————————————
Laporan dalam format PDF dapat dilihat pada menu “Research – di PROFITS” atau pada link:

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Contact Us :
WA : 085287538568
IG : phintracosekuritasofficial
YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official
TELE : phintasprofits
www.phintracosekuritas.com

The US–Iran conflict and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil supply, driving Brent prices above US$100/barrel and VLCC rates above US$1 million/day. In November 2026, geopolitical risks began to ease alongside recovering oil distribution. We estimate a global oil supply surplus of around 5 million bpd in FY27F, potentially keeping oil prices below US$100/barrel.

Tanker rates are expected to decline throughout FY27F as geopolitical risks ease. Nevertheless, rates may remain more competitive than pre-conflict levels, supported by global demand and higher vessel utilization, particularly for clean tankers such as MR vessels. Higher vessel prices also create fleet expansion opportunities, although they increase capex requirements.

Higher oil prices increased vessel fuel costs, with Fujairah VLSFO prices up 111% YoY in October 2026. In 9M26, shipping companies’ COGS increased due to higher operating and fuel costs. Nevertheless, gross profit remained solid, supported by higher rates and shipping activities.

LNG demand is projected to increase by 14.7% YoY to 466 million tons in FY27F. Indonesia’s oil and gas resources provide opportunities for FSO, FPSO, and FSRU vessels, while higher vessel activity supports domestic shipyard demand. Diversification into LNG, offshore, and shipyard segments may provide additional growth opportunities.

The shipping related sector outlook remains supported by continued vessel demand and utilization, which may sustain competitive tanker rates despite easing geopolitical risks. Business diversification and fleet optimization also provide opportunities to capture long-term growth. Key risks include lower tanker rates, higher fuel costs, and increased vessel expansion costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Indonesia’s 290 million tons nickel ore RKAB allocation and planned production cuts by Chinese producers support nickel prices. However, rising global supply and high inventories may limit price increases. Stainless steel demand remains strong, while slower EV sales growth, HPM pricing, sulfur prices, and El Niño pose challenges.

Copper prices are projected at US$14,000–15,000/ton in FY26, supported by demand from renewable energy, EVs, and data centers. However, structural supply constraints, particularly high exploration costs, remain a key challenge.

Gold prices are projected at US$4,000–4,300/troy oz through FY26F, supported by structural central bank demand. However, price movements remain sensitive to Fed policy, US inflation, bond yields, and US dollar dynamics.

Mineral downstreaming investment reached IDR 335.1 trillion in 9M26, with bauxite accounting for the largest share at 48.1%, followed by nickel at 37.3%. Meanwhile, tin demand remains supported by electronics and AI infrastructure, amid supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar, supporting a higher 2026 price forecast of US$51,000–51,500/ton.

We remain constructive on the Metals Mining sector, supported by competitive commodity prices and stronger downstreaming activities. Key risks include higher operating costs due to elevated energy prices, US dollar appreciation amid geopolitical uncertainty, and government policies that may affect sector performance.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBRI’s PATMI increased 16.9% YoY to Rp47.69 trillion in 9M26, supported by 6.2% YoY growth in NII to Rp117.86 trillion.

Loans grew 14.5% YoY to Rp1,647 trillion, outpacing DPK growth of 12.0% YoY to Rp1,651 trillion, highlighting the importance of maintaining sufficient funding to support further lending.

NII declined 7.6% QoQ to Rp37.32 trillion in 3Q26, as interest expenses rose 19.3% QoQ. Although CASA increased 8.2% QoQ to Rp1,156 trillion, controlling funding costs remains a key challenge.

NIM declined 30 bps YoY to 7.4%, while ROE improved to 19.2% from 17.0%. The NPL ratio also improved to 2.85% from 3.08% in 9M25, indicating better asset quality.

CAR stood at 23.0%, providing an adequate capital buffer to support further expansion. Going forward, sustaining CASA growth, managing funding costs, and maintaining disciplined underwriting will be critical to preserving earnings growth.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update| 09 November 2026
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk – TLKM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

**TLKM: Near-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Infrastructure Upside**

>Earnings Growth Remained Moderate Amid Margin Pressure. TLKM recorded 9M26 revenue of IDR113.5 trillion (+3.5% YoY), supported by Telkomsel revenue of IDR82.9 trillion (+1.8% YoY) and data revenue growth of 7.7% YoY. However, net income declined 4.3% YoY to IDR14.4 trillion due to higher non-operating items. Normalized net income reached IDR16.5 trillion (+3.9% YoY), while EBITDA grew 2.0% YoY to IDR56.49 trillion, with a margin of 48.89% (vs. 49.62% in 9M25; FY26 Mgmt guidance: 50%).

>Telkomsel Faces Data Yield Pressure Amid Price Competition. Telkomsel’s 3Q26 revenue and EBITDA declined 2.7% and 5.3% QoQ to IDR27.3 trillion and IDR12.3 trillion, respectively. Data yield fell to IDR3.03/MB (vs. IDR3.10/MB in 2Q26; IDR3.12/MB in 1Q26), amid weaker consumer activity and intensifying price competition. Nevertheless, 9M26 mobile ARPU grew 7.1% YoY to IDR45.4k, with 151.1 million subscribers.

>FY27F–FY28F Earnings Estimates Revised Down. We lower FY27F–FY28F revenue estimates by 2.4% and 4.8% to IDR154.0 trillion and IDR158.4 trillion, respectively, while net income estimates are cut by 4.1% and 10.3% to IDR19.9 trillion and IDR20.9 trillion. Revisions reflect ongoing TLKM transformation costs and higher depreciation of approximately IDR1.23 trillion in 9M26. Meanwhile, data center revenue and EBITDA grew 17% and 35% YoY, respectively. Management targets 400 MW capacity by 2030, with potential expansion to over 1 GW, supported by rising AI infrastructure demand.

>Currently, TLKM trades at 3.2x EV/EBITDA FY26F, 2 standard deviations below its 5-year average. Potential re-rating is supported by ARPU recovery and infrastructure monetization, particularly data centers and subsea cables. Key risks include price competition, higher CapEx intensity in 2027–2028, and uncertainty surrounding asset monetization and infrastructure utilization.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash | 09 November 2026
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk – INTP.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

INTP: Stronger Earnings Recovery, Bulk Cement to Drive FY27 Growth

>Earnings Recovery Continued in 3Q26. INTP recorded net profit of IDR712 billion (+90.2% QoQ; +25.3% YoY), bringing 9M26 net profit to IDR1.30 trillion (+22.5% YoY), equivalent to 73% of our FY26 estimate. Revenue grew 22.0% QoQ to IDR5.62 trillion, supported by a 20.8% increase in sales volume to 6.18 million tons and a 1.0% rise in blended ASP to IDR909k/ton.

>Margin Expansion Supported by Cost Efficiency. Despite a 13.3% QoQ increase in cost of revenue, gross profit rose 41.7% QoQ to IDR2.00 trillion, with GPM improving to 35.52% (vs. 30.57% in 2Q26). Lower raw material and fuel costs per ton supported margin expansion, although higher distribution and shipping costs absorbed part of the ASP increase. Operating profit grew 116.8% QoQ to IDR868 billion, with OPM reaching 15.45%.

>FY27 Growth to Be Led by Bulk Cement. We expect mid-single-digit revenue growth in FY26, although 4Q26 growth may moderate due to the rainy season. For FY27, management targets sales volume growth of 4%–5% YoY, led by bulk cement (+6%–7% YoY vs bag cement +3%–4% YoY), supported by private project such as industrial estate and data center developments as well as government infrastructure projects.

>Despite improving volume and cost efficiency, industry oversupply and distribution cost pressures remain key constraints. Key risks include slower cement demand recovery, higher input and logistics costs, and weaker-than-expected sales volume and earnings.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On-

TUGU recorded a net profit of Rp526 billion in 9M26 (+24.3% YoY), reaching approximately 75% of our FY26 estimate, supported by a 17.2% YoY increase in insurance service results.

Insurance service revenue grew 4.5% YoY to Rp6.73 trillion, primarily driven by the offshore segment (+105% YoY) and fire segment (+11% YoY), while marine hull declined 2% YoY.

Profitability improved, with insurance service margin increasing to 9.0% from 8.0%, net margin to 7.4% from 6.6%, and ROE to 7.0% from 5.9%. However, investment income declined 31.2% YoY to Rp342 billion.

TUGU maintains a strong capital position, with an RBC ratio of 410.9% in FY25, well above the 120% regulatory minimum, alongside an AM Best Financial Strength Rating of A-.

Danantara’s planned consolidation of state-owned insurance companies could reshape industry competition. TUGU’s energy franchise and Pertamina affiliation provide strategic advantages, although the holding structure and sustainability of business synergies remain key considerations.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Revenue declined 10.80% YoY to Rp7.49 trillion in 9M26, while net profit decreased 18.13% YoY to Rp1.43 trillion, mainly due to weaker development revenue.

Recurring revenue grew 6.55% YoY to Rp1.83 trillion in 9M26, highlighting the resilience of CTRA’s commercial property business amid property market normalization.

Marketing sales remained flat at Rp7.59 trillion in 9M26, although 3Q26 sales improved 26.53% QoQ to Rp2.90 trillion, supported by stronger contributions from new product launches.

Recurring revenue is projected to reach Rp2.44 trillion in FY26E and Rp2.63 trillion in FY27F, while development revenue is expected to recover to Rp9.90 trillion in FY27F.

CTRA’s net cash position provides financial flexibility to support expansion, although weaker purchasing power, higher interest rates, and slower project absorption remain key risks.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup mixed pada perdagangan Jumat (6/11).

Data nonfarm payrolls tercatat 165 ribu di Oktober dari 60 ribu (6/11).

Tingkat pengangguran AS turun dari 4.2% menjadi 4.1% (6/11).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 2 bps ke level 4.855% (6/11).

Harga emas koreksi 0.7% ke level US$4,059/troy oz (6/11).

Data indikator ekonomi domestik yang akan dirilis pekan ini, yaitu indeks consumer confidence, penjualan otomotif dan penjualan ritel.

Investor menantikan rebalancing indeks MSCI pekan ini (12/11).

Secara teknikal IHSG berpeluang uji level 5,100-5,200 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: TLKM, HMSP, ASII, ICBP, UNVR dan BRIS.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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November 9th, 2026