Indonesia’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell to US$144.9 billion in May 2026, from US$146.2 billion in April 2026. It was led by the government’s global bond issuance, as well as by tax and service revenues amid external debt payments and policies to stabilize the Rupiah exchange rate. Additionally, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves were equivalent to 5.6 months of imports, exceeding the international adequacy standard of around 3 months of imports.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash Notes
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk – TOWR.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>TOWR delivered a relatively softer 1Q26 performance, with revenue reaching IDR3.56 trillion (+10.83% YoY; -2.35% QoQ). The sequential decline was mainly driven by weaker contributions from the tower leasing segment, which accounted for 58% of total revenue. Revenue from the segment declined to IDR2.05 trillion (-4.16% YoY; -12.61% QoQ), in line with lower average rental rates of IDR11.28 million per month (-8.27% YoY).

>Management emphasized that the decline in rental rates was primarily attributable to contract normalization with XLSmart, the company’s largest customer (c.35% of total revenue), rather than reflecting any deterioration in underlying tower demand. This view was supported by resilient operating indicators, with total tenancies increasing to 60.74k (+4.65% YoY) while tenancy ratio remained healthy at 1.66x (vs. 1.63x in 1Q25).

>From a business mix perspective, non-tower businesses continued to gain traction, with their contribution increasing to 42% of total revenue in 1Q26 (vs. 30% in 1Q25). While this diversification provides an additional growth avenue, the lower-margin nature of non-tower operations resulted in EBITDA margin normalization during the quarter.

>EBITDA stood at IDR2.78 trillion (+3.80% YoY; -5.41% QoQ), with EBITDA margin normalizing to 78.0% (vs. 83.48% in 1Q25 and 82.31% in 4Q25), reflecting revenue mix dilution from the growing contribution of non-tower businesses. At the bottom line, net profit reached IDR941 billion (+17.20% YoY; -16.27% QoQ), while net profit margin narrowed to 26.46% (vs. 30.86% in 4Q25).

>Despite continued pressure on its core tower business, 1Q26 results remained broadly in line with our expectations and consensus estimates (Phintas: 23%; Cons: 23%). We therefore maintain our FY26 forecasts while continuing to factor in the potential impact of post-merger consolidation.

>Looking ahead, we expect non-tower businesses to contribute c.35% of FY26F revenue, while potential tenant additions from Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) deployments could provide incremental growth support amid softer tower segment performance. Management guided FY26 revenue at c.IDR14 trillion with EBITDA margin of 75–78%, reflecting the ongoing shift toward lower-margin non-tower businesses.

>Key risks to our view include: (1) higher-than-expected site rationalization, (2) continued rental rate pressure, and (3) slower-than-expected growth in non-tower businesses.

Full Report :

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June 8th, 2026

June 8th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah signifikan pada Jumat (5/6).

Pelemahan dipicu oleh tekanan jual pada saham pembuat chip.

Data nonfarm payrolls yang lebih baik dari estimasi meningkatkan potensi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga tinggi lebih lama.

Koreksi saham teknologi di AS berpotensi menyebar ke Eropa dan Asia.

Investor akan mencermati IPO saham SpaceX terhadap saham teknologi di AS (12/6).

Pasar akan mencermati perkembangan konflik AS-Iran terkait dengan laju inflasi.

Data ekonomi domestik yang akan dirilis, yaitu cadangan devisa Mei 2026 (8/6), consumer confidence Mei 2026 (10/6) dan retail sales April 20206 (11/6).

IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif pada support 5400-5500 dan resistance 5700-5800.

Top picks pekan ini: EMAS, MDKA, ARCI, INCO dan PSAB.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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U.S. Treasury mengalami tekanan jual signifikan setelah data ketenagakerjaan AS yang lebih
kuat dari ekspektasi memperkuat keyakinan bahwa The Fed berpotensi kembali menaikkan
suku bunga pada akhir 2026 untuk meredam inflasi yang masih tinggi. Kondisi ini mendorong
kenaikan imbal hasil di seluruh tenor, dengan U.S. Treasury yield 2 tahun naik ke 4.17% dan
yield 10 tahun mencapai 4.55%.

Menteri Keuangan RI Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa menepis narasi “Sell Indonesia” yang
disuarakan sebagian investor asing dengan menegaskan bahwa fundamental ekonomi
Indonesia tetap kuat, ditopang oleh kondisi fiskal yang sehat dan prospek pertumbuhan
ekonomi yang baik. Menurutnya, pelemahan pasar keuangan dan nilai tukar rupiah lebih
banyak dipengaruhi sentimen negatif jangka pendek.

Gubernur The Fed Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan, mengatakan sejumlah pejabat The Fed menilai suku bunga acuan mungkin perlu dinaikkan kembali pada tahun ini apabila tekanan inflasi tetap tinggi, terutama akibat kenaikan biaya energi dan dampak kebijakan tarif yang berpotensi mendorong harga lebih tinggi.

Menteri Keuangan RI Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, mengungkapkan bahwa dalam diskusi dengan Standard & Poor’s (S&P), perhatian utama tertuju pada kondisi fiskal Indonesia, khususnya perkembangan defisit anggaran dan penerimaan negara. Ia menegaskan bahwa posisi fiskal Indonesia masih terjaga dengan baik, didukung oleh perbaikan penerimaan pajak yang tumbuh 22.1% YoY pada Mei 2026. Selain itu, Purbaya menepis spekulasi mengenai potensi penurunan peringkat utang Indonesia dan menyatakan bahwa pemahaman S&P terhadap fundamental ekonomi Indonesia terus membaik.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Kamis (4/6).

Penguatan pada saham-saham sektor kesehatan mengimbangi penurunan di sektor teknologi.

Investor menantikan data nonfarm payrolls yang akan dirilis nanti malam.

Danantara akan terbitkan obligasi dan MTN global.

DPR mengesahkan RUU Pengembangan dan Penguatan Sektor Keuangan (P2SK) menjadi UU (4/6).

Harga minyak turun sekitar 3% (4/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps ke level 4.471% (4/6).

Harga emas menguat 0.8% di level US$4,466/troy oz (4/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG fluktuatif cenderung melemah dan menguji support di 5700-5800.

Top picks (5/6): ADRO, ANTM, MDKA, TINS dan INCO.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 5th, 2026

Indonesia’s Trade Balance surplus declined to US$0.09 billion in April 2026 from US$3.32 billion in March 2026 (Figure 1). Nevertheless, Indonesia’s Trade Balance has continued to record a surplus for 72 consecutive months since May 2020. It was supported by a non-oil and gas trade surplus of US$3.53 billion in April 2026, with animal or vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel as the main contributors. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$3.44 billion in April 2026, mainly driven by deficits in crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash Notes
PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk – TLKM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>TLKM delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with revenue reaching Rp37.19 trillion (+1.50% YoY; +0.17% QoQ), supported by continued strength in the Data, Internet & IT Services segment as the primary growth driver. Revenue from the segment grew 7.12% YoY to Rp23.65 trillion, partially offsetting the ongoing decline in legacy services.

>On the operational side, subscriber trends remained relatively soft, with the mobile subscriber base declining 1.35% YoY to 156.67 million. However, this was more than offset by continued improvement in monetization quality, reflected in blended ARPU of Rp45.10K (+6.37% YoY) and data yield of Rp3.12/MB (vs. Rp2.89/MB in 1Q25). Data traffic also continued to expand (+2.3% YoY), suggesting that revenue growth is increasingly being driven by customer value rather than subscriber additions.

>Meanwhile, legacy services remained under pressure, with voice and SMS revenues declining 59.10% YoY and 19.46% YoY, respectively, in line with the ongoing migration toward OTT platforms. Within the fixed broadband segment, IndiHome revenue declined 4.28% YoY to Rp6.38 trillion amid continued ARPU pressure and intensifying competition across the broadband industry.

>From a profitability perspective, TLKM recorded net profit of Rp4.34 trillion (-21.72% YoY), below our expectations and consensus, with net profit margin contracting to 11.7% (vs. 15.1% in 1Q25). The decline was primarily attributable to higher O&M expenses (+15.5% YoY), driven by increased gaming voucher purchases and higher CPE-related costs, alongside a 3.8% YoY increase in depreciation and amortization expenses following revisions to the estimated useful lives of several network and infrastructure assets.

>Looking ahead, management maintains its FY26 revenue growth guidance of 1–3% YoY. We believe TLKM remains well-positioned to achieve its target, supported by an increasingly rational industry structure, improving customer monetization, and a stronger focus on customer quality. In addition, the ongoing streamlining agenda, with four non-core businesses already divested and a target of 9–10 divestments by 1H26, is expected to enhance management focus on core operations. The planned implementation of ERP Phase 2 in 2H26, with a budget of approximately Rp1.0–1.2 trillion, should further support operational transformation and business simplification efforts.

>Key risks to our view include: (1) weaker consumer purchasing power, (2) a more aggressive competitive environment, (3) higher-than-expected operating cost pressures, and (4) slower-than-expected execution of streamlining initiatives.

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U.S. ISM Service PMI Index naik menjadi 54.5 pada Mei 2026 dari 53.6 pada April, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 53.8 dan mencerminkan akselerasi aktivitas sektor jasa yang mencapai level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan terakhir. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh pertumbuhan aktivitas bisnis, pesanan baru, dan persediaan yang lebih kuat, namun sektor ketenagakerjaan masih mengalami kontraksi dengan indeks berada di 47.9.

Yield Curve Surat Utang Negara (SUN) mengalami inversi, di mana yield tenor jangka pendek lebih tinggi dibanding tenor jangka panjang. Kondisi ini umumnya dipandang sebagai sinyal bahwa investor memperkirakan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi ke depan.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Rabu (3/6).

Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh koreksinya saham sektor teknologi dan ketidakpastian negosiasi damai AS-Iran.

Data pertumbuhan lapangan kerja AS di sektor swasta menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat (3/6).

Moody’s menetapkan peringkat PT Danantara Investment Management (DIM) pada Baa2 dengan prospek negatif.

Harga minyak naik sekitar 2% (3/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 3 bps ke level 4.489% (3/6).

Harga emas melemah hampir 1% di level US$4,440/troy oz (3/6).

Jika IHSG ditutup di bawah level 5900, maka berpotensi akan menguji level support berikutnya di 5750-5840.

Top picks (4/6): JSMR, MSIN, ACES, PSAB dan MAPA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 4th, 2026

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings meningkat 731 ribu menjadi 7.62 juta pada April 2026, level tertinggi sejak November 2024 dan jauh di atas ekspektasi pasar sebesar 6.88 juta. Kenaikan ini menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja yang tetap tangguh meskipun menghadapi tekanan kenaikan biaya energi akibat konflik Timur Tengah, dengan peningkatan terbesar terjadi pada sektor jasa profesional dan bisnis.

Inflasi Indonesia meningkat menjadi 3.08% YoY pada Mei 2026 dari 2.42% YoY pada April, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2.97% YoY, namun masih berada dalam rentang target Bank Indonesia sebesar 1.5%-3.5%. Kenaikan inflasi terutama didorong oleh lonjakan harga pangan yang mencapai 4.94% YoY, didukung oleh kenaikan harga bahan pokok dan biaya distribusi di berbagai daerah, serta tekanan harga pada sektor perumahan, transportasi, dan restoran.