U.S. PMI data for July 2026 indicated continued economic resilience, with both manufacturing and services remaining in expansion territory. Manufacturing growth was supported by stronger production and new orders, while services activity accelerated on solid domestic demand and improved business confidence. However, employment conditions weakened in the services sector, and rising energy, raw material, and tariff-related costs intensified input and selling-price pressures amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

CTRA reported weaker 6M26 earnings, with revenue and net profit declining 11.7% YoY and 11.2% YoY, due to slower unit handovers. Recurring revenue remained resilient, growing 4.6% YoY, while NPM improved to 21.1%.

Marketing sales reached IDR4.69 trillion in 1H26 (-18.2% YoY), representing 50% of the FY26 target, reflecting softer purchasing power. Landed residential remained the key contributor, while high rise sales declined 37% YoY.

Greater Jakarta remained the main growth driver, supported by the successful launch of Citra Homes Halim, which recorded a 92% take up rate and IDR565 billion in sales.

The strong performance of Citra Homes Halim supports several new launches in 2H26, strengthening CTRA’s marketing sales outlook.

We remain positive on CTRA, supported by its diversified residential portfolio, continued government incentives, and stronger than expected 2Q26 economic growth, which should support demand recovery in 2H26.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk – TLKM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>TLKM reported a solid 2Q26, with net profit reaching IDR 6.28 Trillion (+44.54% QoQ; +15.72% YoY), driven by topline growth, cost efficiencies, and one-off gains from divestments. Revenue increased to IDR 38.69 Trillion (+4.03% QoQ; +6.39% YoY), bringing 1H26 revenue to IDR 75.88 Trillion (+3.94% YoY), broadly in line with our and consensus estimates (Phintas: 50.6%; Cons: 50.2%).

>Growth was primarily supported by the Data, Internet & IT Services segment, with revenue reaching IDR 24.54 Trillion in 2Q26 (+3.77% QoQ; +20.23% YoY), reflecting healthier monetization TLKM’s customer base optimization strategy continued to support monetization, with blended ARPU rising 9.09% YoY to IDR 45.6K and reaching IDR 46.0K in 2Q26 (+2.0% QoQ), while data yield remained stable at IDR 3.1/MB. Stronger ARPU helped offset a 3.08% YoY decline in subscribers to 153.5 Million and a 1.60% YoY contraction in data traffic to 11,528 PB.

>In FBB segment, TLKM continued to improve subscriber quality by removing non-revenue-generating customers inactive for more than 12 months and adopting a more selective acquisition strategy. This resulted in a 5.45% YoY decline in subscribers to 9.51 Million and a 6.04% YoY contraction in ARPU to IDR 207K. Nevertheless, IndiHome revenue showed early signs of recovery, increasing 0.66% QoQ to IDR 6.42 Trillion in 2Q26, indicating a more productive subscriber base and improving revenue quality.

>Mgmt maintained its FY26 guidance for revenue growth of 1–3%, normalized EBITDA margin of >50%, and capex-to-revenue of 17–19%. We view these targets as achievable, given that 1H26 revenue growth of 3.94% has exceeded guidance, while the 49.4% EBITDA margin should improve on cost normalization and continued efficiency gains.

>The additional 100 MHz of spectrum (20 MHz in the 700 MHz band and 80 MHz in the 2.6 GHz band), increases TLKM’s total spectrum holdings to 265 MHz, strengthening network capacity, coverage, and 5G readiness. However, the IDR 1.2 Trillion upfront spectrum fee and network deployment requirements could drive higher capex in 2H26.

>Downside risks include: (1) a slower-than-expected ARPU recovery, (2) higher capex and spectrum costs, and (3) renewed competitive intensity.

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August 6th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Rabu (5/8), di tengah sentimen yang variatif.

Data ADP Employment turun menjadi 44 ribu di Juli 2026 (5/8)

PDB Indonesia melambat menjadi 5.29% YoY di 2Q26 dari 5.61% di 1Q26 (5/8).

Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) Indonesia turun menjadi 4.65% pada Mei 2026 (5/8).

Tingkat kemiskinan Indonesia turun ke level 8.07% di Maret 2026 (5/8).

Pemerintah menunda pemungutan pajak melalui marketplace.

Harga minyak mentah bergerak pada kisaran sempit (5/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 1 bps di level 4.613% (5/8).

Harga emas spot menguat 4.3% di level US$4,252/troy oz (5/8).

Diperkirakan IHSG melanjutkan penguatan menguji level 6,370-6,400.

Top picks (6/8): ANTM, BRMS, BUMI, KLBF, ENRG dan PSAB.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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U.S. ISM Services PMI naik tipis menjadi 54.1 pada Juli 2026 dari 54.0 pada Juni 2026, meski masih di bawah perkiraan sebesar 54.5, dan tetap pada area ekspansi sektor jasa. Peningkatan terjadi pada aktivitas bisnis, pesanan baru, dan persediaan. Hal ini ditopang oleh acara Piala Dunia yang terjadi pada Juli lalu.

Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia turun menjadi 5.29% YoY pada 2Q26 dari 5.61% YoY pada 1Q26. Menurut komponen pengeluarannya, pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga (5.06% YoY) dan konsumsi pemerintah (15.97% YoY). Sementara itu, pertumbuhan Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) (6.87% YoY), konsumsi Lembaga Nonprofit yang Melayani Rumah Tangga (6.93% YoY), Ekspor (4.13% YoY), dan Impor (8.82% YoY) menguat pada 2Q26.

Indonesia’s economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 5.29% YoY in 2Q26, decreased 5.61% YoY in 1Q26 and above the market consensus of 5.1% YoY. GDP in 2Q26 at current prices amounted to Rp5,947.5 trillion, while GDP at constant prices amounted to Rp3,396.6 trillion.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk – INTP.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>INTP reported a solid quarter in 2Q26, posting net profit of IDR 374 Billion (+74.01% QoQ; +31.81% YoY), exceeding both our and consensus estimates (Phintas: 33% vs. Cons: 31% vs. 5-year avg.: 27%). The strong performance was driven by solid revenue growth and higher non-operating income contributions. Revenue increased to IDR 4.61 Trillion (+19.84% QoQ; +13.55% YoY), primarily supported by cement sales of IDR 4.27 Trillion (+19.81% QoQ; +13.15% YoY).

>Gross profit increased 27.91% QoQ to IDR 1.41 Trillion, with GPM expanding to 30.57% (vs. 28.64% in 1Q26), as COGS growth remained relatively contained at 16.60% QoQ. Operating profit increased to IDR 401 Billion (+75.37% QoQ; +9.74% YoY), although growth was partly offset by a 24.98% QoQ (+25.87% YoY) increase in delivery expenses to IDR 631 Billion.

>Following the low season in the previous quarter, INTP’s operational performance strengthened in 2Q26, with sales volume increasing to 5.12 Million tons (+15.21% QoQ; +13.10% YoY), bringing cumulative 1H26 volume to 9.56 Million tons (+7.57% YoY). Blended ASP also increased to IDR 900K/ton (+4.01% QoQ; +0.40% YoY), reflecting the Company’s continued pricing discipline.

>In line with this pricing strategy, INTP’s market share declined to 28.1% in 1H26 (vs 29.5% in 1H25; -1.4ppt), primarily reflecting a decline in the bag cement segment to 22.5% (vs 24.4% in 1H25; -1.9ppt). Despite ceding some market share, the decline remained consistent with the Company’s strategy to preserve profitability amid lingering input cost pressures.

>We expect INTP’s performance to remain solid in 2H26, supported by demand normalization and sustained pricing discipline. Management maintained its FY26F volume growth guidance at the low-to-mid single-digit level, which we believe remains achievable, given that 1H26 volume grew 7.57% YoY and demand has historically been stronger in 2H.

>Demand from government projects, particularly Kopdes, SPPG, and Sekolah Rakyat, is expected to remain the key volume driver, alongside contributions from private-sector projects, including the Kendal KEK. However, potential budget cuts for several government projects in FY27F could limit domestic cement demand growth.

>Downside risks include: (1) higher input costs, (2) Fx volatility, and (3) weaker-than-expected sales volume and earnings realization.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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U.S. JOLTs Job Openings turun 178 ribu menjadi 7.36 juta pada Juni 2026, lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar sebesar 7.40 juta. Penurunan terutama terjadi pada sektor kesehatan, rekreasi dan perhotelan. Penurunan lowongan kerja menunjukkan permintaan tenaga kerja AS mulai melemah, sehingga berpotensi menurunkan tekanan kenaikan upah dan inflasi.

Konsensus Bloomberg memperkirakan ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh 5.1% YoY pada 2Q26 melambat dari 5.61% YoY pada 1Q26, sedangkan secara kuartalan diperkirakan tumbuh 3.51% QoQ pada 2Q26 setelah terkontraksi 0.77% QoQ pada 1Q26. Perkiraan tersebut menunjukkan fondasi ekonomi domestik masih cukup kuat karena pertumbuhan bertahan di atas 5%, tetapi momentum ekspansi mulai melemah dan ruang akselerasi semakin terbatas.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Rabu (4/8).

Kenaikan indeks dipicu laporan kinerja emiten yang kuat serta berlanjutnya penurunan harga minyak.

>Data lowongan pekerjaan di AS di bawah perkiraan menjadi 7.36 juta pada Juni 2026 (4/8).

>Penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor swasta AS diperkirakan turun menjadi 70 ribu orang (5/8).

>Indeks ISM Service PMI diperkirakan naik pada level 54.5 di Juli 2026 (5/8).

>Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan melambat menjadi 5.1% YoY di 2Q26 (5/8).

>Harga minyak mentah melemah lebih dari 5% (4/8).

>U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun sekitar 6 bps di level 4.619% (4/8).

>Harga emas spot menguat 0.6% di level US$4,078/troy oz (4/8).

>Diperkirakan IHSG akan menguji resistance di level 6,370-6,400.

>Top picks (5/8): BULL, INDY, INCO, TOBA dan ARTO.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 5th, 2026

INCO’s revenue grew 27.3% YoY to US$543.1 million in 6M26, driven by a 2,840.0% YoY surge in nickel ore sales to US$142.3 million, with volume reaching 2,545,342 wmt (vs 147,491 wmt), while nickel matte sales declined 5.0% YoY to US$400.81 million.

INCO’s net profit increased significantly  313.4% YoY to US$104.38 million in 6M26, with growth accelerating in 2Q26 by 39.3% QoQ to US$60.8 million, supported by the average selling price of nickel matte rising 20.6% YoY to US$14,491/tonne and COGS decreasing 3.6% QoQ to US$10,005/tonne.

INCO’s profitability margin lines recorded significant improvements in 6M26, with the GPM rising to 28.04% (vs 7.07% in 6M25), the OPM rising to 24.70% (vs 1.46%), and the NPM rising to 19.22% (vs 5.92%).

The reactivation of Furnace 3 supported INCO’s nickel matte production up 18.60% QoQ to 16,153 mt in 2Q26, though energy costs also increased with coal at US$143.12/mt (+11.8% QoQ) and diesel at US$1.15/liter (+40.24% QoQ).

INCO’s Sambalagi HPAL project received an autoclave for processing limonite nickel ore into MHP as a raw material for EV batteries, offering significantly higher added value than nickel matte and nickel ore.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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MIDI delivered solid revenue growth of 8.5% YoY to IDR11.24 trillion in 6M26, driven by strong performance across all product segments, while gross profit increased 10.1% YoY despite a seasonal QoQ slowdown following the festive period.

Net profit rose 24.3% YoY to IDR486 billion in 6M26, supported by continued store expansion and broad-based revenue growth across all business segments, in line with 58% of our FY26 earnings forecast.

Operational performance remained robust, with 75 net store openings in 1H26, expansion into one new province and three additional regencies/cities, bringing the total store network to 2,662 outlets.

Expansion outside Java continued to gain traction, with stores outside the island accounting for 55.0% of the total network, reflecting the Company’s ongoing strategy to capture growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets.

We maintain our recommendation supported by the Company’s solid expansion strategy, while monitoring risks from weaker consumer purchasing power, KDMP-related expansion constraints, and intensifying industry competition.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk – AALI. IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>AALI reported a solid 2Q26 performance, posting net profit of IDR726bn (+94.4% QoQ; +70.7% YoY). Revenue increased 3.4% QoQ (+4.5% YoY) to IDR7.8tn, mainly driven by higher CPO and derivative sales (+2.1% QoQ; +6.4% YoY) to IDR6.9tn, alongside a recovery in kernel and derivative sales (+14.3% QoQ) to IDR873bn. Meanwhile, COGS rose by only 0.8% QoQ (+4.5% YoY) to IDR6.4tn despite a 21.2% QoQ (+9.9% YoY) increase in raw material costs to IDR5.3tn, largely offset by efficiencies across other operating cost components. Consequently, GPM improved to 17.6% (vs. 15.5% in 1Q26), while OPM and NPM expanded to 10.9% (vs. 9.7%) and 9.4% (vs. 5.0%), respectively.

>Operational performance also recovered strongly in 2Q26. Processed FFB volume increased 27.0% QoQ to 1.69mn tons, driving CPO production up 27.9% QoQ to 330k tons and kernel production up 27.3% QoQ to 70k tons, in line with the seasonal recovery following the low crop period. On a cumulative 1H26 basis, however, processed FFB volume still declined 4.0% YoY to 3.01mn tons, followed by a 2.2% YoY decline in CPO production, reflecting normalized productivity from the Company’s aging plantation profile.

>Nevertheless, total CPO and derivative sales volume still increased 1.7% YoY to 898k tons, supported by 5.9% YoY growth in domestic sales, which offset weaker export demand. In addition, OER and KER improved to 19.6% (vs. 19.3% in 2Q25) and 4.3% (vs. 4.0% in 2Q25), respectively, reflecting better production quality and improved processing efficiency.

>We remain constructive on AALI’s outlook for 2H26, supported by seasonal production recovery, resilient CPO demand, and relatively tight global supply. Although the Company’s aging plantation profile continues to increase external FFB procurement, its healthy balance sheet (DER <1) and net cash position provide ample financial flexibility to support future expansion. Overall, 1H26 results remained broadly in line with our estimates, with the Company achieving 51% of our FY26F revenue forecast and 70% of our FY26F net profit forecast (53% and 73% of consensus, respectively).

Key risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) lower-than-expected plantation productivity, and (3) higher operating costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ASII’s net revenue declined by 3.0% YoY to IDR157.91tn in 6M26, mainly driven by 14.9% YoY contraction in its Mining Solutions and Heavy Equipment segment.

The decline reflected significantly lower gold sales from the Martabe Mine following operational restrictions earlier this year, reduced national coal RKAB allocations that weighed on mining activity and contractor demand, as well as weaker Komatsu heavy equipment sales.

Profit growth in the automotive and financial services businesses offset the decline in profits from mining solutions and heavy equipment.

The decline in the profits of the mining solutions and heavy equipment segment resulted in 19.2% YoY decline in ASII’s net profit to Rp12.53 trillion in 6M26.

ASII has implemented new corporate strategy focused on increasing shareholder returns. This strategy centers on three core businesses that collectively contribute approximately 90% of the group’s profits: the automotive segment, financial services, also mining and heavy equipment solutions.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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