Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update | 6 November 2026
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk – AALI.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

AALI: Strong Earnings Recovery, Cautious FY27 Outlook

>Strong Earnings Growth on Margin Expansion. AALI recorded 3Q26 net profit of IDR806 billion (+11.0% QoQ; +119.0% YoY), bringing 9M26 net profit to IDR1.9 trillion and NPM to 8.03% (vs. 4.84% in 9M25). Revenue grew 9.0% QoQ to IDR8.46 trillion, while cost of revenue increased only 3.5% QoQ, supported by lower raw material (-7.8% QoQ) and harvesting and maintenance costs (-14.7% QoQ). Consequently, GPM expanded to 21.80% from 17.62% in 2Q26.

>Higher Production Supported by Export Sales. FFB processed volume rose 1.7% QoQ to 1.71 million tons, lifting CPO production by 3.0% to 340k tons and kernel production by 4.3% to 73k tons. Total CPO and derivatives sales increased 2.7% QoQ to 453k tons, driven by export sales growth of 50.0% to 189k tons, while local sales declined 16.2% to 264k tons.

>More Conservative FY27F Outlook Amid El Niño. We lower FY27F revenue, gross profit, and operating profit estimates by 1.66%, 1.50%, and 1.34%, respectively, reflecting potential lower FFB productivity following El Niño in 2H26. Lower FFB availability could constrain CPO production and sales volume, reducing FY27F net profit estimate by 0.76% to IDR1.71 trillion. Conversely, we raise FY26F net profit estimate by 51.93% to IDR2.39 trillion following stronger-than-expected 9M26 performance.

>Key risks include: (1) global CPO price volatility, (2) El Niño-related production disruptions, and (3) higher fertilizer and labor costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On-

AMRT’s 9M26 revenue increased 7% YoY to Rp101.28 trillion, supported by growth across food (+8%) and non-food (+5%) segments, with a 74% run rate against our revised FY26 estimate. Franchise revenue contributed 17.83% of total revenue, slightly declining YoY.

Gross profit rose 9% YoY to Rp22.20 trillion, while operating income increased 8% YoY to Rp3.19 trillion. Net income grew 6% YoY to Rp2.55 trillion. We lowered our FY26 net income forecast from Rp4.08 trillion to Rp3.67 trillion, as 9M26 realization reached only 63% of our initial estimate.

AMRT continued expanding its store network, particularly outside Java, targeting approximately 800 new Alfamart stores in 2026. Despite potential competition from Koperasi Desa Merah Putih, AMRT’s operational performance remained solid. The Philippines also offers long-term growth potential, with 200–250 additional stores targeted.

We revised our valuation and projection for FY26 onwards, with key risks including weakening consumer purchasing power, Rupiah depreciation, and potential foreign investor capital outflows.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On –

BULL booked 3Q26 revenue of US$54 million, down from US$85 million in 2Q26, mainly due to weaker performance in the oil tanker, FPSO, and FSO segments amid lower vessel rates. Nevertheless, 9M26 revenue increased by 71% YoY to US$183 million, supported by these segments, which contributed US$169 million (+64% YoY), while the gas tanker segment generated US$11 million.

3Q26 gross profit decreased by 48% QoQ to US$25 million, mainly due to a US$5 million loss from the gas tanker segment, bringing consolidated GPM to 46%. However, 9M26 gross profit increased by 235% YoY to US$91 million, with GPM improving to 50% (vs. 25% in 9M25) and EBITDA reaching US$99 million (+180% YoY).

We expect vessel rates to remain above pre conflict levels in 4Q26, supporting revenue, although elevated rates may not persist in the longer term. Strong fleet utilization, FSO and FPSO contracts, and an expected recovery in the gas tanker segment should support BULL’s operational performance.

We estimate FY26F revenue at US$235 million (+62% YoY), gross profit at US$113 million, and net profit at US$96 million. We maintain our BUY rating with a fair value of IDR 380/share, implying FY26F/FY27F EV/EBITDA of 3.26x/2.74x. Key Risks: Tanker charter rate fluctuations, dependence on oil and gas transportation demand, and shipping regulatory changes.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

November 6th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah signifikan pada Kamis (5/11).

Wall Street mencatatkan hari terburuknya sejak masa setelah Liberation Day.

Investor melepas saham sektor teknologi karena kekhawatiran akan melambatnya pembangunan data center.

Data initial claims pekan lalu turun 6 ribu menjadi 189 ribu (5/11).

Investor menantikan data nonfarm payrolls (6/11).

Harga minyak Brent menguat lebih dari 3% (5/11).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 5 bps pada level 4.839% (5/11).

Harga emas spot ditutup menguat 1% di level US$4,100/troy oz (5/11).

Ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh 5.47% YoY pada 3Q26 (5/11).

IHSG berpeluang menguji level resistance di 5,100-5,125, namun perlu diwaspadai potensi profit taking.

Top picks (6/11): BBCA, BBRI, AMMN, EMAS dan INDF.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Revenue increased 1.76% YoY to Rp5.21 trillion in 9M26, supported by an 8.30% YoY growth in recurring revenue to Rp4.44 trillion, contributing approximately 85% of total revenue.

Development revenue declined 24.51% YoY to Rp770 billion, while retail leasing and hospitality revenue grew 6.95% and 16.67% YoY, respectively.

EBITDA grew 4% YoY to Rp2.86 trillion, while adjusted net income increased 5% YoY to Rp2.13 trillion, reflecting the resilience of PWON’s recurring business and operational efficiency.

Marketing sales declined 10.19% YoY to Rp811 billion in 9M26, with the VAT incentive (PPN DTP) contributing approximately 59% of residential marketing sales.

Three key development projects with a total investment value of Rp12.3 trillion are expected to add 190 thousand sqm of retail NLA and 1,582 hotel rooms, supported by a 503.8ha land bank for future expansion.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash | 5 November 2026
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk – CPIN.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>Solid Earnings Growth in 9M26. CPIN recorded revenue of IDR60.20 trillion (+19.0% YoY) and net profit of IDR5.18 trillion (+54.0% YoY) in 9M26. Net profit margin improved to 8.61% (vs. 6.65% in 9M25), with earnings realization reaching 74.1% of Phintraco’s FY26 estimates and 78.0% of consensus. In 3Q26, net profit increased 30.3% QoQ to IDR1.47 trillion, supported by stronger operating performance.

>Broiler and DOC Led the Profitability Recovery. Broiler EBIT rebounded to IDR1.21 trillion in 3Q26 (+1,830.7% QoQ), with its margin improving to 11.1%, supported by an 18.8% QoQ increase in average livebird prices to IDR22,197/kg. DOC also returned to positive EBIT of IDR213 billion (vs. an IDR96 billion loss in 2Q26), following a 34.8% QoQ recovery in DOC prices to IDR6,707/chick. In contrast, Feed EBIT declined 25.5% QoQ to IDR923 billion amid higher input costs.

>Manageable COGS Supported Margin Recovery. 3Q26 COGS increased only 1.4% QoQ, below revenue growth of 6.8% QoQ. Consequently, gross profit rose 43.4% QoQ to IDR3.57 trillion, while GPM improved to 17.17% (vs. 12.79% in 2Q26). Operating profit also increased 80.2% QoQ to IDR2.18 trillion, lifting OPM to 10.48% from 6.21% in the previous quarter.

>CPIN trades at 5.4x FY26F P/E, around -1 standard deviation from its five-year average, representing an approximately 50% discount. The 47% YTD share price correction offers an attractive entry point.

>Key risks include weaker livebird and DOC prices, higher feed raw material costs, particularly corn and soybean meal (SBM), and slower consumer purchasing power recovery.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On-

ERAA recorded top-line growth in 9M26. Revenue increased by 22% YoY to Rp63.97 trillion, achieving a 78% run rate of our FY26 estimate, supported by strong growth in the active and lifestyle goods, computer and consumer electronics, and cellular phones and tablets segments.

ERAA recorded solid bottom-line performance in 9M26. Operating profit grew by 28.93% YoY to Rp2.08 trillion, while net profit reached Rp1.08 trillion, supported by higher gross profit and lower financial expenses.

ERAA’s SSSG improved in August 2026. Overall SSSG reached 0.1%, improving from -8.6% in July, while Erablue and ERAL recorded stronger SSSG of 7.9% and 18.3%, respectively.

ERAA’s retail network expansion continues. The company recorded a net addition of 272 stores, bringing its total network to 2,605 stores as of August 2026, alongside further expansion in its food and beverage and automotive businesses.

We revised our valuation, with key risks including weakening consumer purchasing power, intensifying industry competition, and TKDN regulations.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On –

November 5th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Rabu (4/11).

Kemenangan Partai Demokrat dalam pemilu midterm di AS dan Presiden Trump yang menerima hasil itu menjadi katalis positif.

Partai Demokrat berhasil meraih mayoritas kursi, baik di DPR maupun Senat, serta memenangkan pemilihan gubernur di sejumlah negara bagian.

Harga minyak turun lebih dari 8% di bawah level US$100/barel (4/11).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun dari 5 bps pada level 4.898% (4/11).

Harga emas spot ditutup menguat 3.41% di level US$4,061/troy oz (4/11).

Ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh 1.3% QoQ pada 3Q26 dari 3.73% QoQ pada 2Q26 (5/11).

Penguatan signifikan indeks di Wall Street, koreksi harga minyak mentah dan dolar AS, serta reboundnya harga emas, berpotensi menjadi sentimen positif.

Secara teknikal diperkirakan IHSG bergerak sideways pada kisaran 4,800-5,000.

Top picks (5/11): ANTM, AADI, ARCI, ADRO dan BREN.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Revenue increased 26.5% YoY to Rp2.10 trillion in 9M26, primarily driven by a 43.2% YoY increase in development revenue to Rp1.39 trillion.

Recurring revenue grew 3.0% YoY to Rp706 billion, supported by contributions from the hospitality, infrastructure, and tourism segments.

Gross profit margin declined to 47.5% from 52.6% in 9M25, as cost of revenue increased 40.0% YoY, outpacing revenue growth.

Net profit rose 889% YoY to Rp109.3 billion, reflecting improvements in gross profit and operating profit, although the increase was also supported by a low base effect in 9M25.

Marketing sales reached Rp1.42 trillion in 9M26, equivalent to 50.7% of the FY26 target, leaving Rp1.38 trillion in sales required during 4Q26 to achieve the annual target.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

KLBF booked 9M26 revenue of IDR 28.97 trillion (+11.5% YoY) and net profit of IDR 2.74 trillion (+4.0% YoY), supported by growth across all business segments, particularly distribution and logistics, which remained the largest contributor.

Higher cost of revenue (+16.9% YoY) weighed on profitability, mainly from distribution and logistics costs. The segment’s GPM declined to 11.7% (vs. 12.3% in 9M25), while pharmaceutical GPM decreased to 46.4% (vs. 50.4% in 9M25), pressured by higher raw material costs, including paracetamol, and a shift toward more affordable generic drugs.

KLBF continues to strengthen product innovation, including locally produced insulin, GLP-1, generic drugs, biologics, and HFMD vaccines in pharmaceuticals; preventive products and gummies in Consumer Health; as well as liquid products and brand development in Nutrition.

We estimate FY26F revenue to increase by 9.8% YoY to IDR 38.78 trillion, while EBITDA and net profit are expected to reach IDR 5.35 trillion (+1.2% YoY) and IDR 3.70 trillion (+1.0% YoY), respectively. Higher costs remain a key consideration for profitability.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

AADI recorded revenue growth in 9M26. Revenue increased by 9.7% YoY to US$3.96 billion, achieving a 69% run rate against our FY26 projection. Growth was primarily supported by an 8.0% YoY increase in coal sales revenue to US$3.73 billion and the contribution from the newly added power asset leasing and supporting services segment, which generated US$87.79 million. However, logistics revenue declined by 7% YoY to US$130.06 million due to drought-related disruptions in Kalimantan, while other revenue decreased by 14.6% YoY to US$17.94 million.

AADI recorded bottom-line growth in 9M26. Gross profit increased by 27.4% YoY to US$1.20 billion, while operating income rose by 7% YoY to US$1.06 billion. Consequently, net profit grew by 16.3% YoY to US$683.3 million. However, tax expenses surged by 90% YoY, primarily reflecting the divestment of its 47.99% stake in Kestrel Coal Group, completed in 3Q26.

AADI completed the Kestrel Coal Resources divestment in 3Q26. The transaction generated initial proceeds of US$814.12 million, with additional contingent cash consideration of up to US$500 million over five years, subject to annual metallurgical coal price thresholds. The divestment is expected to strengthen the company’s cash position and provide potential upside for dividend distributions. Meanwhile, coal sales volume declined by 3% QoQ to 17.9 million tons due to logistical constraints amid lower water levels in the Barito River, while ASP decreased by 1% QoQ to US$75.2/ton.

Key risks include coal regulatory uncertainty, prolonged drought conditions in Kalimantan that could disrupt operations, and the full implementation of exports through PT DSI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On –

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash | 4 November 2026
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk – JPFA.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

JPFA: Strong Earnings Growth, Supported by Poultry Segment Recovery

>Solid Earnings Growth in 9M26. JPFA recorded revenue of IDR54.53 trillion (+26.5% YoY) and net profit of IDR3.23 trillion (+34.0% YoY). Net profit growth was supported partly by higher contributions from joint ventures, reaching IDR61.3 billion (vs. IDR7.0 billion in 9M25).

>Poultry Segment Profitability Recovers. Animal Feeds revenue grew 40.2% YoY to IDR15.66 trillion, while DOC EBIT surged 582.9% YoY to IDR1.83 trillion. Commercial Farm also returned to a positive EBIT of IDR399 billion in 3Q26, supported by higher livebird and DOC prices.

>Raw Material Costs Remain a Key Risk. Raw material costs increased 42.0% YoY to IDR38.99 trillion in 9M26 and surged 100.6% QoQ to IDR20.07 trillion in 3Q26. Higher corn and soybean meal (SBM) prices, potential El Niño-related supply disruptions, and rupiah volatility may constrain margin recovery.

>JPFA trades at 3.98x FY26F P/E, around -1 standard deviation from its five-year average, representing a 51% discount.

>Key risks include weaker livebird and DOC prices, higher raw material costs, and a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer purchasing power.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On-

ADRO recorded top-line growth in 9M26. Revenue increased by 41.0% YoY to US$1.9 billion, reaching 77% of our FY26E. Growth was primarily driven by the initial aluminium sales contribution through ADMR, which generated US$522 million or 27.5% of total revenue. Mining product sales also grew by 8.1% YoY to US$725 million, while mining services revenue declined by 3.5% YoY to US$623 million.

ADRO recorded solid profitability growth in 9M26. Net profit increased by 71.3% YoY to US$516.6 million, supported by a 67.5% increase in gross profit and a 96.7% rise in operating income. Higher contributions from dividends and joint ventures also supported earnings growth. Meanwhile, total assets increased by 20% to US$8.18 billion, accompanied by a 42% rise in liabilities to US$2.58 billion, mainly due to higher lease liabilities and loan drawdowns for the aluminium smelter project.

ADRO continues its share buyback program. The company allocated up to IDR5 trillion for its share buyback program, which commenced on 20 October 2026 and will run until April 2027. Based on our simulation, the buyback could increase basic EPS from US$0.01526 to US$0.01668, although cash utilization is expected to reduce total assets and equity to US$6.52 billion and US$4.70 billion, respectively.

Key risks include the full implementation of the export scheme through PT DSI, weaker global steel demand, commodity price volatility, and potential operational disruptions caused by drought conditions along rivers in Kalimantan.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
-Disclaimer On –